Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala


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Product list for Turon River at Sofala



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Exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala ( Feb 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1010.91158.073
204.84622.935
302.59511.791
401.4666.230
500.8093.524
600.4291.872
700.1731.006
800.0000.459
900.0000.108

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
158.218222.824
240.782166.582
331.585144.585
425.973126.974
522.038113.725
618.94796.654
716.27485.056
813.81074.619
912.08064.898
1010.91158.073
119.84452.751
128.95847.269
138.17843.339
147.56439.598
157.01635.798
166.47033.013
175.89729.912
185.54027.002
195.17224.657
204.84622.935
214.50521.359
224.13819.649
233.94618.611
243.70917.092
253.51316.216
263.28815.484
273.05814.392
282.89613.576
292.74912.720
302.59511.791
312.46011.010
322.30310.233
332.1889.667
342.0749.158
351.9508.450
361.8547.940
371.7577.441
381.6537.009
391.5646.661
401.4666.230
411.3995.833
421.3045.558
431.2455.326
441.1755.030
451.1104.774
461.0564.492
471.0084.260
480.9173.962
490.8643.744
500.8093.524
510.7643.333
520.7243.153
530.6762.941
540.6302.761
550.5952.571
560.5612.373
570.5302.257
580.4922.142
590.4622.025
600.4291.872
610.3981.735
620.3651.639
630.3391.551
640.3151.450
650.2871.373
660.2661.298
670.2401.230
680.2181.146
690.1961.063
700.1731.006
710.1500.931
720.1290.874
730.1090.810
740.0860.755
750.0650.697
760.0500.648
770.0360.597
780.0160.551
790.0020.510
800.0000.459
810.0000.413
820.0000.372
830.0000.329
840.0000.294
850.0000.266
860.0000.229
870.0000.194
880.0000.168
890.0000.139
900.0000.108
910.0000.082
920.0000.054
930.0000.026
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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