Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala


Return to catchment list
Product list for Turon River at Sofala



Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala ( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1087.22475.713
2057.08736.715
3038.65821.176
4026.70912.322
5018.8777.583
6013.3464.441
708.9102.637
805.3871.407
902.4450.531

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1195.413214.910
2160.347168.796
3141.483150.843
4129.415136.197
5119.812125.452
6110.855110.718
7102.517100.564
897.25291.282
991.54382.275
1087.22475.713
1183.22370.423
1279.21864.769
1375.05660.622
1471.46356.599
1568.82852.343
1666.13449.093
1763.60045.450
1860.92541.914
1959.32738.951
2057.08736.715
2155.01634.640
2252.94132.426
2350.40530.939
2448.16628.859
2546.23227.609
2644.79026.564
2743.06725.030
2841.45523.860
2940.13122.552
3038.65821.176
3136.94419.974
3235.56918.807
3334.47917.923
3433.18617.084
3531.68415.982
3630.67515.141
3729.58614.336
3828.64513.615
3927.64713.044
4026.70912.322
4125.92511.654
4225.06811.176
4324.20110.786
4423.30510.267
4522.4089.817
4621.4909.331
4720.8818.906
4820.1508.373
4919.5407.986
5018.8777.583
5118.2217.230
5217.6476.889
5317.0346.506
5416.4516.154
5515.9275.812
5615.4665.416
5714.9385.191
5814.3934.970
5913.7644.736
6013.3464.441
6112.8414.160
6212.3943.963
6311.9563.784
6411.4403.573
6511.0363.415
6610.6553.258
6710.1083.115
689.7112.936
699.2892.760
708.9102.637
718.5402.475
728.2072.350
737.7562.208
747.3712.087
757.0251.957
766.7111.845
776.4321.728
786.0611.624
795.7151.528
805.3871.407
815.1201.299
824.8421.200
834.5821.094
844.2521.009
853.8180.938
863.5170.847
873.2940.758
883.0240.690
892.7500.612
902.4450.531
912.1570.460
921.9360.382
931.7240.305
941.3790.220
951.1750.165
960.9530.107
970.6590.033
980.3680.000
990.0470.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence