Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Turon River at Sofala


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Product list for Turon River at Sofala


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Probability distribution for Turon River at Sofala(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile6.3003.678
Median12.84511.248
Mean19.32227.016
75% Quartile25.53432.657
Interquartile Range19.23428.978

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
195.944191.939
279.088152.969
369.967137.866
463.184125.585
558.176116.598
653.275104.304
750.25495.844
847.86388.109
945.69180.589
1043.19975.092
1141.08070.640
1239.41265.855
1337.91962.321
1436.55958.869
1535.09855.184
1634.02352.344
1732.90149.129
1831.84345.969
1930.92843.288
2030.11041.243
2129.28339.324
2228.18137.255
2327.41335.850
2426.41833.864
2525.53732.657
2624.74431.641
2724.07630.135
2823.39028.974
2922.64727.664
3021.98326.270
3121.41425.038
3220.90923.829
3320.45922.903
3419.94022.016
3519.44320.839
3618.95119.930
3718.29019.052
3817.74018.257
3917.24117.623
4016.78716.813
4116.36216.055
4215.95115.509
4315.51615.060
4415.07714.458
4514.58213.931
4614.18913.357
4713.86612.851
4813.47212.211
4913.13611.741
5012.84511.248
5112.54910.813
5212.29510.389
5312.0269.907
5411.7239.461
5511.5069.023
5611.1858.510
5710.8978.216
5810.5847.926
5910.3357.616
6010.0607.221
619.7916.840
629.4746.571
639.1436.326
648.8986.033
658.6965.811
668.4815.589
678.2515.387
688.0365.131
697.7724.875
707.5654.696
717.2854.458
727.0334.272
736.8384.060
746.5363.876
756.3003.678
766.0613.506
775.7993.324
785.5993.160
795.4043.008
805.1432.814
814.9092.639
824.6982.477
834.4882.300
844.2372.157
854.0162.036
863.7981.879
873.5371.724
883.3051.604
893.0681.464
902.8661.316
912.6461.184
922.3671.035
932.1300.886
941.8740.716
951.6020.603
961.3840.480
971.0810.317
980.7100.191
990.3850.062


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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