Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Turon River at Sofala


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Product list for Turon River at Sofala


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Probability distribution for Turon River at Sofala(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.1060.523
Median3.7662.915
Mean11.20018.571
75% Quartile11.88514.934
Interquartile Range10.77914.411

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
197.935204.536
276.393155.389
364.592136.024
456.015120.397
549.272108.530
643.50393.034
739.44882.329
836.09872.540
933.13563.266
1030.90156.656
1128.35351.447
1226.56146.030
1324.96142.119
1422.91338.377
1521.16934.563
1619.87731.760
1718.55628.637
1817.48325.708
1916.48423.352
2015.58821.626
2114.74120.049
2213.95018.344
2313.29117.313
2412.73615.809
2511.89014.944
2611.34014.224
2710.93013.154
2810.48312.357
2910.04311.525
309.46010.625
319.0579.873
328.6379.128
338.2248.589
347.9078.105
357.5707.435
367.1046.955
376.7896.488
386.4856.085
396.1275.762
405.7775.364
415.5564.999
425.2514.746
435.0464.535
444.8154.265
454.6634.033
464.4733.779
474.2833.571
484.0493.304
493.9083.110
503.7662.915
513.6362.747
523.4842.588
533.3192.404
543.1732.247
553.0312.083
562.8811.912
572.7471.812
582.6401.714
592.4911.615
602.3911.486
612.2951.371
622.2111.290
632.1071.216
642.0201.133
651.9421.069
661.8641.007
671.7840.952
681.6850.882
691.5730.815
701.4860.769
711.4070.709
721.3240.663
731.2450.612
741.1730.568
751.1060.523
761.0440.484
770.9750.444
780.9050.409
790.8630.377
800.8120.337
810.7720.303
820.7200.271
830.6510.238
840.5820.212
850.5320.191
860.4850.164
870.4270.139
880.3790.120
890.3230.098
900.2740.077
910.2200.058
920.1840.038
930.1480.019
940.0910.000
950.0470.000
960.0110.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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