Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Turon River at Sofala


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Product list for Turon River at Sofala



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Probability distribution for Turon River at Sofala ( Mar 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.0740.523
Median0.6192.915
Mean3.00418.571
75% Quartile2.44414.934
Interquartile Range2.37014.411

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
140.736204.536
225.778155.389
318.424136.024
414.469120.397
511.764108.530
610.50293.034
79.30182.329
88.37272.540
97.59263.266
106.88156.656
116.37151.447
125.87746.030
135.36542.119
144.99438.377
154.60034.563
164.31431.760
174.10628.637
183.83725.708
193.57423.352
203.31021.626
213.09020.049
222.91618.344
232.75017.313
242.57615.809
252.44414.944
262.26614.224
272.15113.154
282.04712.357
291.94711.525
301.82410.625
311.7049.873
321.6169.128
331.5388.589
341.4608.105
351.3887.435
361.3076.955
371.2346.488
381.1766.085
391.1125.762
401.0685.364
411.0084.999
420.9664.746
430.9184.535
440.8724.265
450.8234.033
460.7793.779
470.7463.571
480.7033.304
490.6603.110
500.6192.915
510.5782.747
520.5442.588
530.5192.404
540.4882.247
550.4642.083
560.4361.912
570.4101.812
580.3881.714
590.3591.615
600.3381.486
610.3201.371
620.3011.290
630.2721.216
640.2511.133
650.2331.069
660.2161.007
670.1960.952
680.1790.882
690.1640.815
700.1470.769
710.1330.709
720.1150.663
730.1030.612
740.0880.568
750.0740.523
760.0610.484
770.0490.444
780.0330.409
790.0220.377
800.0090.337
810.0000.303
820.0000.271
830.0000.238
840.0000.212
850.0000.191
860.0000.164
870.0000.139
880.0000.120
890.0000.098
900.0000.077
910.0000.058
920.0000.038
930.0000.019
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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