Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala


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Product list for Turon River at Sofala


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Historical and exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala( Jul 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1990) (GL)
Jul13.1090.7990.2953.83564.905
Jul-Aug26.2900.8640.4737.475208.228
Jul-Sep33.4841.6950.50010.828225.504

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1023.799100.198
2014.39155.137
3010.10234.538
407.29221.599
505.35814.144
603.8998.895
702.7875.704
801.7833.403
900.7521.646

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
170.767243.932
252.775196.866
343.431178.508
439.851163.497
534.794152.446
632.014137.211
729.322126.628
827.353116.863
925.474107.275
1023.799100.198
1122.52094.422
1221.15088.163
1320.14983.508
1418.95878.931
1517.87874.015
1617.05670.205
1716.28365.867
1815.57461.583
1915.00657.932
2014.39155.137
2113.86452.509
2213.42249.669
2312.96947.737
2412.56345.004
2512.08343.341
2611.67841.941
2711.30239.865
2810.77438.265
2910.45336.459
3010.10234.538
319.72132.843
329.33231.180
339.06929.909
348.83628.692
358.60327.080
368.35025.838
378.05424.640
387.75123.559
397.50322.697
407.29221.599
417.08720.574
426.86819.837
436.67419.232
446.46518.422
456.23017.715
466.03916.948
475.86516.272
485.68715.420
495.52914.797
505.35814.144
515.17413.570
525.02713.011
534.89812.380
544.69811.796
554.57211.224
564.42110.557
574.29310.177
584.1869.802
594.0329.403
603.8998.895
613.7848.408
623.6808.065
633.5497.753
643.4307.381
653.3257.101
663.2086.822
673.0986.568
683.0006.246
692.9065.927
702.7875.704
712.6575.408
722.5595.179
732.4844.917
742.3804.691
752.2734.449
762.1814.239
772.0814.017
781.9893.819
791.8963.635
801.7833.403
811.6653.192
821.5743.000
831.4782.790
841.3702.621
851.2852.479
861.1742.296
871.0752.115
880.9591.976
890.8641.816
900.7521.646
910.6681.496
920.5511.329
930.4341.162
940.3280.974
950.2150.850
960.0970.717
970.0000.544
980.0000.412
990.0000.280


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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