Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala


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Product list for Turon River at Sofala


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Historical and exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2013) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Oct10.5620.0020.0021.99083.323
Oct-Nov18.7120.0020.0028.076158.099
Oct-Dec23.3520.0020.00221.825166.471

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.40777.776
208.63438.625
305.55821.396
403.76711.699
502.7226.785
601.8893.741
701.2112.117
800.7361.093
900.3360.432

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
154.593195.450
240.559157.541
332.426142.677
427.564130.463
524.552121.426
621.814108.879
720.117100.088
818.36591.910
917.03583.807
1015.40777.776
1114.44272.821
1213.46867.419
1312.67263.380
1412.05459.395
1511.37455.101
1610.61051.767
1710.02147.972
189.63044.229
199.16441.049
208.63438.625
218.23436.357
227.86433.922
237.46032.277
247.18929.968
256.88228.575
266.61227.410
276.32625.697
286.04524.390
295.83022.930
305.55821.396
315.38020.059
325.16218.764
334.97217.788
344.74916.863
354.50915.653
364.32414.736
374.18213.862
384.04613.084
393.92412.470
403.76711.699
413.64310.989
423.54510.485
433.44210.075
443.3199.532
453.2019.064
463.1208.562
473.0048.126
482.9117.583
492.8277.191
502.7226.785
512.6026.433
522.5026.095
532.4175.718
542.3135.374
552.2265.042
562.1584.661
572.0794.446
582.0274.238
591.9494.017
601.8893.741
611.8223.481
621.7443.300
631.6783.137
641.5902.946
651.5122.803
661.4532.662
671.3902.536
681.3432.378
691.2742.224
701.2112.117
711.1641.978
721.1051.871
731.0601.751
741.0131.648
750.9711.540
760.9211.448
770.8851.352
780.8241.267
790.7851.189
800.7361.093
810.6831.007
820.6450.930
830.5970.848
840.5510.783
850.5220.729
860.4880.661
870.4540.595
880.4120.545
890.3800.489
900.3360.432
910.2980.382
920.2620.328
930.2190.276
940.1680.221
950.1300.185
960.0920.149
970.0510.105
980.0070.073
990.0000.045


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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