Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala


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Product list for Turon River at Sofala


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Historical and exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Oct11.0273.7581.1180.0242.08783.323
Oct-Nov19.53019.8121.5340.0248.507158.099
Oct-Dec24.37024.6722.4220.02422.336166.471

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1028.47177.776
2016.42638.625
3010.78921.396
407.51511.699
505.4946.785
603.8473.741
702.5752.117
801.6291.093
900.8120.432

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
175.996195.450
263.336157.541
353.608142.677
445.238130.463
540.533121.426
637.652108.879
734.905100.088
832.51091.910
930.60083.807
1028.47177.776
1126.80872.821
1225.26367.419
1323.76263.380
1422.45759.395
1521.29755.101
1620.31651.767
1719.08347.972
1818.10144.229
1917.27941.049
2016.42638.625
2115.69736.357
2214.99633.922
2314.28932.277
2413.67929.968
2513.02128.575
2612.47727.410
2712.03625.697
2811.66024.390
2911.20822.930
3010.78921.396
3110.45120.059
3210.08418.764
339.66217.788
349.26316.863
358.85415.653
368.53214.736
378.31213.862
388.05013.084
397.73412.470
407.51511.699
417.29510.989
427.05210.485
436.86310.075
446.6259.532
456.4099.064
466.2328.562
476.0588.126
485.8477.583
495.6667.191
505.4946.785
515.2856.433
525.0986.095
534.9055.718
544.7365.374
554.5825.042
564.4194.661
574.2884.446
584.1384.238
593.9934.017
603.8473.741
613.7373.481
623.5883.300
633.4483.137
643.3112.946
653.1752.803
663.0482.662
672.9092.536
682.7752.378
692.6822.224
702.5752.117
712.4581.978
722.3811.871
732.2761.751
742.1601.648
752.0641.540
761.9821.448
771.9081.352
781.8301.267
791.7201.189
801.6291.093
811.5311.007
821.4410.930
831.3630.848
841.2760.783
851.1950.729
861.1150.661
871.0250.595
880.9560.545
890.8740.489
900.8120.432
910.7180.382
920.6480.328
930.5700.276
940.4960.221
950.4150.185
960.3450.149
970.2220.105
980.1450.073
990.0590.045


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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