Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala


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Product list for Turon River at Sofala


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Historical and exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1979) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Dec4.8404.8600.8870.07013.829116.195
Dec-Jan11.0247.0332.5000.10315.384122.373
Dec-Feb16.46015.6694.0280.10717.287123.806

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1024.55741.026
2013.51720.079
308.89112.224
406.0887.623
504.2405.021
602.9993.187
701.9742.073
801.1471.255
900.4690.620

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1103.799142.680
269.697106.019
355.37592.104
447.33081.219
540.49073.203
635.85863.107
732.79456.388
829.12450.419
926.56144.899
1024.55741.026
1123.15637.994
1221.56234.848
1320.06132.569
1419.00930.374
1517.78328.113
1616.68026.430
1715.61224.525
1814.95222.701
1914.13221.200
2013.51720.079
2112.89419.036
2212.30817.883
2311.76917.173
2411.31716.115
2510.93115.495
2610.47314.971
2710.06614.177
289.66913.575
299.21512.933
308.89112.224
318.48511.617
328.18711.003
337.89910.549
347.67310.134
357.3949.547
367.1679.118
376.8218.691
386.5338.315
396.3278.008
406.0887.623
415.8207.262
425.6187.008
435.3666.792
445.1906.512
455.0386.267
464.8785.995
474.7305.766
484.5525.469
494.3785.247
504.2405.021
514.1224.821
523.9724.631
533.8294.404
543.7144.208
553.5943.997
563.4723.773
573.3463.640
583.2393.507
593.1133.370
602.9993.187
612.8843.021
622.7562.902
632.6202.792
642.5182.664
652.4102.565
662.3222.467
672.2402.378
682.1562.265
692.0602.152
701.9742.073
711.8711.969
721.7851.887
731.6811.795
741.6051.714
751.5161.628
761.4421.553
771.3631.474
781.2891.404
791.2121.338
801.1471.255
811.0761.179
820.9991.110
830.9261.035
840.8670.974
850.8000.923
860.7290.856
870.6530.791
880.5910.740
890.5300.682
900.4690.620
910.4060.565
920.3460.503
930.2730.442
940.2080.372
950.1510.326
960.0830.277
970.0190.211
980.0000.162
990.0000.111


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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