Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala


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Product list for Turon River at Sofala


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Historical and exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Apr8.0337.8570.0200.0000.95282.349
Apr-May13.35113.7840.0390.0001.89887.989
Apr-Jun20.61026.8570.5330.0004.243138.802

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1055.58758.153
2033.92024.824
3021.74813.177
4014.0647.142
509.2544.138
606.1582.272
703.9621.276
802.2300.636
900.9490.218

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1126.381189.556
2107.442146.077
395.104129.118
485.249115.107
577.691104.303
671.20690.864
766.05781.284
861.94172.482
958.41664.180
1055.58758.153
1152.42953.376
1249.20048.415
1346.92544.769
1444.22841.072
1542.12637.546
1640.11034.887
1738.42831.684
1836.86428.871
1935.40326.553
2033.92024.824
2132.41223.173
2231.09421.346
2329.76320.354
2428.46318.793
2527.52017.873
2626.09017.103
2724.75415.949
2823.80715.083
2922.82714.171
3021.74813.177
3120.79712.339
3219.85711.502
3318.90410.891
3418.42910.340
3517.6969.571
3616.8189.015
3716.0728.471
3815.3897.998
3914.7877.616
4014.0647.142
4113.3596.705
4212.8526.401
4312.3496.145
4411.9155.816
4511.3905.532
4610.9525.220
4710.5164.961
4810.1654.628
499.7554.385
509.2544.138
518.8743.924
528.4633.721
538.0643.483
547.7813.281
557.5533.066
567.2242.841
576.9332.710
586.6442.579
596.4112.447
606.1582.272
615.9092.116
625.6452.005
635.4281.904
645.1661.789
654.9421.701
664.7321.614
674.4931.536
684.2991.438
694.1471.342
703.9621.276
713.7801.189
723.5831.123
733.3891.048
743.1720.984
753.0150.917
762.8790.859
772.7370.799
782.5270.746
792.3800.697
802.2300.636
812.0660.583
821.9250.534
831.8010.482
841.7000.441
851.5780.407
861.4150.364
871.3090.322
881.1770.290
891.0530.254
900.9490.218
910.8080.186
920.7080.151
930.6030.118
940.4710.082
950.3630.059
960.2220.035
970.1270.006
980.0340.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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