Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala


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Product list for Turon River at Sofala


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Historical and exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
May5.3185.9270.0190.0000.94646.680
May-Jun12.57819.0000.5130.0003.291116.024
May-Jul25.96037.5471.3120.0007.124202.127

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1024.37775.713
2013.11236.715
308.15121.176
405.31412.322
503.5537.583
602.3104.441
701.4402.637
800.7201.407
900.1150.531

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
192.700214.910
267.048168.796
355.069150.843
446.479136.197
540.209125.452
634.725110.718
731.311100.564
828.56191.282
926.24182.275
1024.37775.713
1122.49370.423
1220.88964.769
1319.27260.622
1418.13156.599
1517.01552.343
1616.09749.093
1715.22945.450
1814.37241.914
1913.81738.951
2013.11236.715
2112.50234.640
2212.02832.426
2311.47230.939
2410.87628.859
2510.37427.609
269.92326.564
279.47225.030
288.99323.860
298.54222.552
308.15121.176
317.74019.974
327.35918.807
337.01517.923
346.71917.084
356.45715.982
366.17615.141
375.95814.336
385.71413.615
395.50813.044
405.31412.322
415.15311.654
424.95811.176
434.71310.786
444.51710.267
454.3279.817
464.1929.331
474.0518.906
483.8998.373
493.7307.986
503.5537.583
513.3927.230
523.2796.889
533.1526.506
543.0076.154
552.8755.812
562.7485.416
572.6285.191
582.5114.970
592.3844.736
602.3104.441
612.2354.160
622.1343.963
632.0523.784
641.9593.573
651.8613.415
661.7623.258
671.6753.115
681.5812.936
691.5242.760
701.4402.637
711.3492.475
721.2992.350
731.2132.208
741.1232.087
751.0401.957
760.9631.845
770.8901.728
780.8341.624
790.7801.528
800.7201.407
810.6721.299
820.6181.200
830.5361.094
840.4801.009
850.4170.938
860.3610.847
870.2920.758
880.2340.690
890.1780.612
900.1150.531
910.0540.460
920.0050.382
930.0000.305
940.0000.220
950.0000.165
960.0000.107
970.0000.033
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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