Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala


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Product list for Turon River at Sofala


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Historical and exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Sep7.3364.1440.8310.0273.39516.753
Sep-Oct18.1385.2620.8330.0505.580100.076
Sep-Nov26.4655.6780.8330.05112.041174.852

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1022.37375.092
2013.92241.243
309.87426.270
407.27816.813
505.31111.248
603.8827.221
702.7424.696
801.7392.814
900.6851.316

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
157.196191.939
245.879152.969
340.436137.866
435.131125.585
531.842116.598
629.434104.304
727.02695.844
825.34988.109
923.99580.589
1022.37375.092
1120.80270.640
1219.85365.855
1318.91562.321
1417.81558.869
1517.00755.184
1616.37552.344
1715.66349.129
1814.90945.969
1914.43643.288
2013.92241.243
2113.36839.324
2212.86337.255
2312.43935.850
2412.14133.864
2511.71932.657
2611.26131.641
2710.93130.135
2810.52128.974
2910.21827.664
309.87426.270
319.55325.038
329.29923.829
339.01922.903
348.75422.016
358.51020.839
368.28419.930
378.06819.052
387.77018.257
397.49117.623
407.27816.813
417.05016.055
426.86115.509
436.63415.060
446.39114.458
456.20213.931
466.02913.357
475.85612.851
485.66912.211
495.49011.741
505.31111.248
515.16410.813
525.02510.389
534.8599.907
544.6829.461
554.5359.023
564.3768.510
574.2538.216
584.1417.926
594.0117.616
603.8827.221
613.7726.840
623.6366.571
633.5406.326
643.4376.033
653.3045.811
663.1605.589
673.0625.387
682.9625.131
692.8564.875
702.7424.696
712.6144.458
722.5074.272
732.4094.060
742.2773.876
752.1953.678
762.1173.506
772.0303.324
781.9183.160
791.8293.008
801.7392.814
811.6462.639
821.5312.477
831.4212.300
841.3052.157
851.2052.036
861.1051.879
870.9901.724
880.8781.604
890.7641.464
900.6851.316
910.6021.184
920.5111.035
930.4030.886
940.3000.716
950.2000.603
960.0770.480
970.0000.317
980.0000.191
990.0000.062


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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