Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala


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Product list for Turon River at Sofala



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Historical and exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala ( Jan 2013 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1985) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Jan6.2932.1731.6130.0371.5542.173
Jan-Feb13.05510.8083.1410.0373.45810.808
Jan-Mar22.380139.6368.2890.03716.832139.636

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1055.755
2023.998
3012.878
407.074
504.160
602.334
701.351
800.713
900.291

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1183.185
2140.694
3123.996
4110.549
5100.356
687.065
777.887
869.481
961.487
1055.755
1151.206
1246.437
1342.960
1439.602
1536.141
1633.569
1730.668
1827.912
1925.663
2023.998
2122.461
2220.781
2319.755
2418.244
2517.366
2616.631
2715.529
2814.702
2913.829
3012.878
3112.075
3211.272
3310.686
3410.156
359.416
368.881
378.357
387.901
397.532
407.074
416.651
426.357
436.109
445.791
455.516
465.212
474.961
484.638
494.400
504.160
513.951
523.754
533.521
543.323
553.113
562.893
572.764
582.636
592.506
602.334
612.180
622.072
631.972
641.858
651.771
661.685
671.608
681.511
691.416
701.351
711.265
721.199
731.124
741.061
750.993
760.936
770.876
780.823
790.774
800.713
810.659
820.610
830.558
840.517
850.482
860.439
870.397
880.365
890.328
900.291
910.258
920.223
930.189
940.152
950.129
960.104
970.074
980.053
990.033


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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