Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10242.699260.761
20208.652212.653
30184.876181.353
40163.136152.507
50144.971128.053
60127.166103.108
70110.19481.564
8089.60360.210
9066.74237.652

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1335.395382.749
2304.860343.923
3291.473328.673
4281.906316.114
5271.723306.792
6265.422293.785
7259.014284.599
8253.469275.972
9247.434267.310
10242.699260.761
11238.168255.293
12234.082249.215
13230.273244.572
14227.252239.888
15223.246234.700
16220.053230.550
17217.260225.667
18214.433220.648
19211.528216.191
20208.652212.653
21206.293209.211
22203.837205.351
23201.638202.633
24199.296198.643
25196.697196.125
26194.534193.946
27191.907190.607
28189.281187.938
29187.117184.815
30184.876181.353
31182.519178.161
32180.641174.894
33177.963172.297
34175.222169.721
35173.262166.161
36171.457163.292
37169.682160.409
38167.365157.702
39165.236155.466
40163.136152.507
41161.435149.625
42159.240147.477
43157.228145.659
44155.072143.149
45153.145140.878
46151.576138.321
47149.682135.989
48148.375132.925
49146.711130.590
50144.971128.053
51143.066125.738
52141.632123.408
53139.604120.668
54137.834118.033
55136.088115.345
56134.402112.067
57132.656110.120
58131.146108.147
59129.217105.973
60127.166103.108
61125.505100.238
62124.08398.136
63122.67696.168
64121.03793.745
65119.77591.855
66118.17389.920
67116.15388.111
68114.45485.747
69112.12783.316
70110.19481.564
71108.34879.168
72106.57977.248
73104.27574.995
74102.56972.983
75100.52870.753
7698.70168.765
7796.49066.601
7894.24964.606
7992.10462.700
8089.60360.210
8187.77957.879
8285.88155.672
8383.75753.179
8481.64451.103
8579.66349.314
8677.25246.921
8774.74044.475
8871.83742.523
8969.41240.202
9066.74237.652
9164.32235.304
9260.86132.573
9357.33329.717
9453.70226.321
9550.66723.946
9646.16721.276
9742.25517.514
9835.33314.409
9929.37510.965


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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