Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10151.691217.242
20128.100177.917
30111.154152.280
4098.500128.579
5087.903108.391
6077.93887.652
7068.30469.574
8058.16951.469
9046.26432.151

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1234.850316.832
2208.178285.142
3193.874272.693
4183.051262.440
5176.221254.830
6168.868244.211
7163.639236.710
8160.097229.665
9154.509222.591
10151.691217.242
11149.447212.775
12146.295207.809
13143.261204.015
14140.452200.187
15138.159195.947
16135.898192.554
17133.657188.561
18131.551184.457
19129.703180.812
20128.100177.917
21125.852175.100
22124.026171.941
23122.173169.716
24120.418166.450
25119.094164.387
26117.628162.602
27115.802159.867
28114.429157.679
29112.667155.120
30111.154152.280
31110.066149.662
32108.815146.981
33107.403144.850
34105.616142.735
35104.184139.810
36102.799137.452
37101.802135.082
38100.764132.855
3999.651131.015
4098.500128.579
4197.345126.206
4296.372124.436
4395.408122.937
4494.222120.866
4593.017118.993
4691.976116.882
4790.844114.955
4890.117112.422
4989.039110.491
5087.903108.391
5186.955106.473
5285.946104.542
5384.905102.269
5483.945100.081
5583.11197.848
5681.94095.121
5781.04693.500
5879.92291.856
5978.90890.043
6077.93887.652
6177.01185.254
6276.08283.495
6375.14081.847
6474.17979.817
6573.48478.232
6672.56676.607
6771.67375.086
6870.64273.098
6969.65771.051
7068.30469.574
7167.33167.552
7266.34865.930
7365.34664.025
7464.43362.322
7563.43160.433
7662.44958.745
7761.34156.908
7860.21455.212
7958.96253.590
8058.16951.469
8156.88049.481
8255.66847.596
8354.52545.466
8453.42743.690
8552.51942.158
8651.02540.108
8749.78838.010
8848.62136.335
8947.66334.342
9046.26432.151
9144.86630.131
9243.05927.783
9341.21025.326
9439.16322.404
9537.07020.362
9634.79918.067
9732.29114.836
9828.38012.175
9923.4349.230


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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