Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1092.023169.820
2076.139136.152
3065.788114.659
4057.44995.313
5050.93679.374
6045.04663.615
7039.23950.386
8032.83337.476
9025.43023.681

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1140.614256.514
2127.046228.832
3119.377217.972
4112.195209.038
5107.383202.413
6103.670193.180
7100.336186.669
897.223180.562
994.022174.441
1092.023169.820
1189.982165.967
1287.795161.691
1385.884158.429
1484.566155.144
1582.909151.510
1681.341148.609
1780.021145.200
1878.397141.704
1977.273138.607
2076.139136.152
2175.047133.769
2273.912131.101
2372.966129.226
2471.731126.479
2570.396124.749
2669.479123.254
2768.578120.968
2867.486119.144
2966.557117.015
3065.788114.659
3164.884112.494
3264.056110.283
3363.288108.530
3462.225106.796
3561.478104.405
3660.810102.484
3759.805100.559
3859.03998.758
3958.22697.272
4057.44995.313
4156.67293.411
4255.98591.997
4355.15990.803
4454.66289.158
4554.13887.675
4653.48586.009
4752.80684.495
4852.13782.511
4951.54381.005
5050.93679.374
5150.34477.889
5249.79076.400
5349.13574.655
5448.48672.982
5547.88771.281
5647.39269.216
5746.84467.993
5846.14866.757
5945.59665.399
6045.04663.615
6144.43261.834
6243.62560.533
6343.02859.319
6442.52057.827
6541.92456.667
6641.44755.481
6740.88954.374
6840.41052.932
6939.82551.451
7039.23950.386
7138.43448.931
7237.83947.767
7337.17446.403
7436.52045.187
7535.99343.840
7635.35242.639
7734.78741.333
7834.13840.130
7933.56238.979
8032.83337.476
8132.14536.067
8231.51434.732
8330.81833.220
8429.98031.960
8529.26130.870
8628.57629.408
8727.76327.908
8827.12726.706
8926.34025.270
9025.43023.681
9124.63522.208
9223.75420.479
9322.54218.651
9421.62516.445
9520.44414.878
9618.88713.088
9717.52410.503
9815.8148.302
9913.4795.764


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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