Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10164.635217.242
20138.364177.917
30121.192152.280
40107.621128.579
5095.749108.391
6085.69287.652
7074.84869.574
8063.74851.469
9051.15132.151

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1245.968316.832
2223.275285.142
3207.601272.693
4197.363262.440
5187.552254.830
6181.047244.211
7176.938236.710
8172.059229.665
9168.747222.591
10164.635217.242
11161.051212.775
12157.737207.809
13154.683204.015
14152.434200.187
15150.155195.947
16147.559192.554
17144.906188.561
18143.066184.457
19141.023180.812
20138.364177.917
21136.396175.100
22134.349171.941
23132.723169.716
24131.007166.450
25129.109164.387
26126.940162.602
27125.528159.867
28124.290157.679
29122.552155.120
30121.192152.280
31119.767149.662
32118.190146.981
33116.652144.850
34114.979142.735
35113.863139.810
36112.325137.452
37111.024135.082
38109.772132.855
39108.822131.015
40107.621128.579
41106.561126.206
42105.339124.436
43104.183122.937
44102.899120.866
45101.686118.993
46100.610116.882
4799.461114.955
4898.333112.422
4997.102110.491
5095.749108.391
5194.563106.473
5293.754104.542
5392.779102.269
5491.633100.081
5590.57797.848
5689.40595.121
5788.49893.500
5887.56991.856
5986.59190.043
6085.69287.652
6184.58485.254
6283.54183.495
6382.37581.847
6481.48279.817
6580.32578.232
6679.13076.607
6778.22975.086
6877.02173.098
6976.06871.051
7074.84869.574
7173.94867.552
7272.90565.930
7371.67964.025
7470.64762.322
7569.52660.433
7668.55058.745
7767.35356.908
7865.97755.212
7964.93853.590
8063.74851.469
8162.70049.481
8261.32347.596
8360.18545.466
8458.69043.690
8557.76542.158
8656.62240.108
8755.29638.010
8854.17036.335
8952.52534.342
9051.15132.151
9149.36230.131
9247.62227.783
9345.16425.326
9443.40022.404
9541.23320.362
9638.69118.067
9735.92514.836
9832.14212.175
9926.3289.230


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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