Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10136.167156.458
20104.095106.832
3082.97283.040
4068.18765.545
5055.74953.227
6046.06142.452
7037.05234.278
8028.22226.706
9018.85418.809

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1258.800406.969
2224.575300.963
3201.599266.919
4187.502242.027
5175.048224.454
6162.520202.960
7154.209188.880
8146.065176.391
9139.998164.747
10136.167156.458
11133.304149.863
12129.023142.886
13125.303137.725
14122.185132.653
15119.080127.302
16116.054123.221
17112.620118.483
18109.330113.816
19106.982109.862
20104.095106.832
21101.840103.948
2299.775100.682
2397.36898.623
2495.25295.487
2593.03293.603
2691.09091.986
2789.11089.486
2887.20287.545
2984.98485.431
3082.97283.040
3181.45680.941
3280.08778.763
3378.31077.115
3476.96775.580
3575.76473.355
3674.23071.683
3772.82169.984
3871.04968.455
3969.68567.180
4068.18765.545
4166.49263.977
4265.30162.851
4363.97361.878
4462.66760.593
4561.06059.445
4660.07358.140
4758.82557.025
4857.91755.539
4956.90454.408
5055.74953.227
5154.84852.163
5253.80451.126
5352.77349.862
5451.68848.744
5550.68447.515
5649.85846.172
5748.97945.354
5848.16444.522
5947.19243.647
6046.06142.452
6144.74941.336
6243.91940.518
6343.04639.744
6442.21338.830
6541.33538.109
6640.45037.376
6739.61536.696
6838.62635.816
6937.70434.919
7037.05234.278
7136.37033.407
7235.44832.714
7334.40931.906
7433.57231.188
7532.71430.398
7631.96529.697
7731.06328.936
7830.30728.238
7929.21727.573
8028.22226.706
8127.60625.897
8226.76825.131
8325.72724.266
8424.65123.545
8523.82422.922
8623.06922.088
8722.13921.231
8821.22620.543
8920.20119.721
9018.85418.809
9117.86217.961
9216.55316.961
9315.52215.898
9414.45914.602
9513.12013.672
9611.60012.598
9710.21111.020
988.4099.643
996.4758.005


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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