Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10213.946259.686
20176.501207.357
30152.738174.077
40132.524144.298
50115.534119.974
60101.29696.207
7087.40876.549
8072.34057.689
9054.14037.951

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1340.270394.721
2303.125351.590
3278.413334.672
4264.688320.754
5252.680310.434
6243.171296.054
7232.320285.915
8224.383276.407
9218.858266.878
10213.946259.686
11209.358253.690
12205.221247.038
13201.095241.965
14196.463236.856
15192.267231.208
16189.036226.699
17186.130221.403
18182.450215.974
19179.416211.166
20176.501207.357
21173.961203.659
22171.186199.522
23168.148196.617
24165.695192.361
25163.659189.682
26161.104187.367
27158.628183.829
28156.305181.008
29154.182177.716
30152.738174.077
31150.577170.733
32148.302167.323
33146.453164.620
34144.342161.947
35142.183158.265
36140.586155.310
37138.448152.351
38136.137149.583
39134.253147.303
40132.524144.298
41130.620141.383
42128.739139.219
43127.000137.392
44125.245134.878
45123.734132.612
46121.809130.071
47120.228127.762
48118.815124.742
49117.177122.452
50115.534119.974
51114.101117.721
52112.959115.465
53111.383112.823
54109.860110.294
55108.117107.728
56106.480104.615
57105.089102.776
58103.637100.918
59102.48098.880
60101.29696.207
6199.87893.543
6298.57691.601
6397.13189.790
6495.82387.570
6594.46085.844
6692.96384.084
6791.39782.443
6890.05780.308
6988.76478.120
7087.40876.549
7185.62974.406
7284.64272.695
7382.96570.694
7481.30568.912
7579.87466.942
7678.52965.190
7776.91063.287
7875.19661.536
7973.95259.867
8072.34057.689
8170.85155.653
8269.30753.726
8367.65951.551
8466.09649.741
8563.95948.179
8662.06146.089
8759.99743.950
8857.99642.239
8956.20340.200
9054.14037.951
9151.92035.871
9249.77333.438
9347.23030.874
9444.63027.793
9540.48225.612
9637.43023.130
9733.51919.566
9828.65816.548
9923.16813.093


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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