Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


Return to catchment list
Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1049.18875.448
2038.79754.918
3032.81744.340
4028.49536.125
5024.55630.044
6021.35024.461
7018.10220.010
8015.02415.670
9011.29010.832

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
184.314163.858
274.107128.536
366.598116.657
462.853107.764
559.626101.366
656.84493.390
754.50688.063
852.30283.266
950.78878.725
1049.18875.448
1147.63272.815
1246.40870.000
1345.09967.898
1443.93465.816
1543.02063.599
1642.15861.895
1741.35059.900
1840.45857.918
1939.77256.225
2038.79754.918
2138.03553.666
2237.50852.239
2336.78151.334
2436.24049.948
2535.63549.110
2635.08248.388
2734.43147.266
2833.88146.390
2933.30945.431
3032.81744.340
3132.33943.377
3231.92342.371
3331.49541.606
3431.05840.890
3530.63939.846
3630.17139.057
3729.70938.251
3829.24337.523
3928.80536.912
4028.49536.125
4128.10935.366
4227.63834.819
4327.15334.343
4426.81233.714
4526.25133.149
4625.99632.504
4725.57331.949
4825.28731.208
4924.92430.640
5024.55630.044
5124.22029.505
5223.88228.977
5323.49328.330
5423.18027.755
5522.82327.119
5622.54026.421
5722.26225.993
5821.97725.556
5921.70225.094
6021.35024.461
6120.98223.865
6220.65423.427
6320.34323.010
6420.06722.515
6519.72422.123
6619.44021.722
6719.16521.350
6818.78120.865
6918.41520.367
7018.10220.010
7117.82319.523
7217.53419.133
7317.21118.676
7416.96518.268
7516.69317.816
7616.37417.413
7716.08516.974
7815.72016.568
7915.40416.179
8015.02415.670
8114.69315.190
8214.31614.733
8314.03214.214
8413.64813.778
8513.29813.399
8612.91312.887
8712.49912.357
8812.12611.928
8911.75811.411
9011.29010.832
9110.79410.288
9210.1939.639
939.6528.939
949.1518.072
958.5607.439
967.9496.696
977.1955.577
986.2974.571
994.8913.331


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence