Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper



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Exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper ( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10181.927156.458
20142.939106.832
30116.48783.040
4096.67065.545
5079.87553.227
6066.73642.452
7054.42034.278
8042.28826.706
9028.70418.809

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1317.225406.969
2279.149300.963
3254.064266.919
4241.551242.027
5226.017224.454
6212.638202.960
7201.967188.880
8194.970176.391
9186.999164.747
10181.927156.458
11177.495149.863
12173.360142.886
13168.719137.725
14165.372132.653
15161.047127.302
16156.929123.221
17153.106118.483
18148.670113.816
19145.706109.862
20142.939106.832
21140.149103.948
22137.443100.682
23134.29598.623
24131.14495.487
25128.91493.603
26126.49791.986
27123.76689.486
28121.22687.545
29118.75185.431
30116.48783.040
31114.11780.941
32111.71478.763
33109.78177.115
34108.01975.580
35105.91773.355
36104.38271.683
37102.60269.984
38100.69368.455
3998.34167.180
4096.67065.545
4194.66963.977
4292.93062.851
4391.25461.878
4489.46960.593
4587.38859.445
4685.80758.140
4784.25357.025
4882.99055.539
4981.53654.408
5079.87553.227
5178.68152.163
5277.16051.126
5375.82949.862
5474.72548.744
5573.38847.515
5672.10746.172
5770.96445.354
5869.69044.522
5968.29343.647
6066.73642.452
6164.94941.336
6263.48440.518
6362.21439.744
6461.37638.830
6559.97238.109
6658.64837.376
6757.86036.696
6856.82535.816
6955.47434.919
7054.42034.278
7153.30433.407
7252.08932.714
7350.66431.906
7449.36731.188
7548.28530.398
7646.94929.697
7745.80428.936
7844.30428.238
7943.36427.573
8042.28826.706
8140.82125.897
8239.66725.131
8338.25524.266
8436.95423.545
8535.49522.922
8634.40322.088
8733.19321.231
8831.68020.543
8930.17319.721
9028.70418.809
9126.99017.961
9225.43116.961
9323.69915.898
9422.27114.602
9520.30313.672
9618.20712.598
9715.93911.020
9813.4969.643
9910.7648.005


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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