Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper



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Exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10198.830232.641
20163.145168.008
30138.217132.899
40117.066105.432
50100.52685.484
6084.96867.785
7071.68854.163
8057.16641.647
9039.97328.720

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1306.627436.316
2276.320367.546
3254.987341.268
4242.860320.041
5234.961304.567
6227.241283.430
7218.403268.861
8209.736255.473
9203.856242.346
10198.830232.641
11193.957224.692
12190.045216.027
13187.066209.532
14182.833203.093
15178.700196.095
16174.873190.603
17171.796184.259
18168.845177.878
19165.576172.332
20163.145168.008
21160.683163.871
22158.234159.312
23155.768156.155
24152.859151.596
25149.988148.766
26147.505146.347
27144.963142.693
28142.850139.818
29140.373136.506
30138.217132.899
31136.580129.635
32134.230126.353
33132.236123.786
34130.233121.278
35128.391117.870
36125.584115.174
37123.459112.510
38121.274110.049
39119.627108.044
40117.066105.432
41115.227102.931
42113.390101.094
43111.85199.556
44109.94297.461
45108.19195.591
46106.65593.516
47105.26791.649
48103.65189.235
49102.31287.425
50100.52685.484
5199.09183.737
5297.45182.002
5395.85479.991
5494.35778.085
5592.67176.169
5690.89073.870
5789.31672.524
5887.67771.172
5986.22169.700
6084.96867.785
6183.78365.892
6282.78664.523
6381.48463.253
6480.10461.706
6578.87860.510
6677.44959.296
6775.97758.170
6874.52256.712
6972.89455.225
7071.68854.163
7170.13752.720
7268.80251.573
7367.40650.235
7465.87149.048
7564.54547.741
7663.30646.582
7761.42245.326
7860.21744.173
7958.76643.076
8057.16641.647
8155.78140.314
8253.99839.053
8352.34637.632
8450.55136.449
8549.34835.428
8647.16234.062
8745.37132.661
8843.76531.540
8942.00930.201
9039.97328.720
9138.18027.344
9236.20025.728
9333.41724.014
9431.22421.936
9528.82820.451
9626.58518.743
9723.90216.249
9820.57414.091
9915.82911.551


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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