Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


Return to catchment list
Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile11.08810.843
Median16.84718.555
Mean20.30625.813
75% Quartile25.67431.859
Interquartile Range14.58621.015

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
170.551131.074
259.33297.792
353.97487.158
449.53579.272
546.65273.882
643.88866.965
741.75262.471
839.76658.524
937.99854.809
1036.50152.156
1135.71750.038
1234.64847.783
1333.62846.128
1432.62644.515
1531.84142.793
1630.98241.462
1730.36039.948
1829.70438.447
1929.14237.160
2028.60536.168
2128.08335.228
2227.42934.200
2326.83533.494
2426.23032.483
2525.68031.859
2625.18831.328
2724.66030.531
2824.29029.908
2923.84929.193
3023.36328.419
3123.00527.722
3222.53727.025
3322.25626.482
3421.84025.953
3521.55925.238
3621.15224.674
3720.82024.118
3820.48223.606
3920.09723.190
4019.68022.649
4119.37522.133
4219.12421.754
4318.76421.437
4418.53321.007
4518.16320.623
4617.88220.197
4717.64919.815
4817.32719.321
4917.08218.951
5016.84718.555
5116.56418.199
5216.33017.845
5316.08217.435
5415.83217.047
5515.52116.657
5615.29316.189
5715.08415.915
5814.85515.640
5914.61815.340
6014.34814.950
6114.11214.564
6213.88814.285
6313.66114.025
6413.40013.710
6513.19613.465
6612.96113.217
6712.75112.987
6812.53912.688
6912.34312.384
7012.13712.166
7111.92311.869
7211.70511.633
7311.49911.358
7411.28211.113
7511.08710.843
7610.81610.603
7710.53710.343
7810.33310.104
7910.1409.875
809.9019.578
819.6949.299
829.4319.036
839.1658.737
848.8858.489
858.6748.273
868.4107.984
878.1187.687
887.8487.449
897.5887.163
907.2306.845
916.9856.549
926.6616.199
936.3285.826
945.9475.371
955.5105.042
965.1374.662
974.4974.101
983.8363.608
992.9093.018


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence