Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile13.65713.378
Median22.28523.023
Mean28.67932.252
75% Quartile36.52539.756
Interquartile Range22.86826.377

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1119.473166.020
296.683123.483
383.717109.922
477.66699.876
571.21593.016
666.98384.220
763.26978.512
860.35773.500
957.78368.787
1055.52065.423
1153.57462.739
1251.54059.883
1350.13257.787
1448.63355.745
1547.22953.567
1645.75551.884
1744.71049.969
1843.26148.072
1942.08646.447
2041.13845.194
2140.19244.006
2239.19642.710
2338.43541.819
2437.49540.543
2536.53139.756
2635.61239.087
2734.94838.082
2834.19437.296
2933.51136.396
3032.78435.421
3132.07134.543
3231.35733.666
3330.69132.982
3430.10732.317
3529.60031.416
3629.09630.707
3728.54730.008
3827.93329.364
3927.50728.842
4026.82328.162
4126.31127.513
4225.85027.037
4325.39626.640
4424.94226.099
4524.46525.617
4624.02525.083
4723.55524.603
4823.08023.984
4922.75923.520
5022.28523.023
5121.75322.576
5221.38122.133
5321.03521.620
5420.69721.133
5520.31320.644
5619.98120.058
5719.61519.715
5819.28919.371
5918.85918.995
6018.50118.507
6118.16618.025
6217.86517.675
6317.52617.351
6417.19716.957
6516.88516.651
6616.61116.341
6716.31916.053
6815.96415.680
6915.60415.300
7015.19915.028
7114.90014.658
7214.57514.363
7314.17914.020
7413.95813.714
7513.65313.378
7613.27513.079
7712.94812.754
7812.54212.456
7912.21412.172
8011.88411.802
8111.54111.455
8211.23311.127
8310.78010.756
8410.52610.446
8510.21310.179
869.8449.819
879.4719.450
889.0479.154
898.6528.799
908.2648.405
917.8708.037
927.3687.604
936.9307.141
946.3616.577
955.8716.171
965.2425.701
974.5205.008
983.7764.400
992.9293.674


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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