Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile105.96970.757
Median150.126128.053
Mean156.846140.366
75% Quartile201.954196.124
Interquartile Range95.984125.367

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1345.001382.749
2313.918343.923
3297.760328.673
4290.019316.114
5278.775306.792
6271.661293.785
7265.019284.599
8259.972275.972
9253.784267.310
10248.923260.761
11244.810255.293
12240.285249.215
13237.470244.572
14234.301239.888
15230.268234.700
16226.878230.550
17224.610225.667
18221.576220.648
19218.247216.191
20215.159212.653
21211.938209.211
22209.705205.351
23206.858202.633
24204.130198.643
25201.965196.125
26198.921193.946
27197.185190.607
28194.898187.938
29192.257184.815
30190.630181.353
31188.630178.161
32187.082174.894
33184.553172.297
34182.587169.721
35180.799166.161
36179.387163.292
37176.843160.409
38174.937157.702
39172.616155.466
40170.493152.507
41168.797149.625
42167.108147.477
43165.198145.659
44163.239143.149
45160.646140.878
46158.993138.321
47156.064135.989
48154.082132.925
49151.979130.590
50150.126128.053
51148.140125.738
52146.382123.408
53144.681120.668
54142.631118.033
55140.809115.345
56138.799112.067
57137.312110.120
58135.469108.147
59133.859105.973
60132.133103.108
61130.191100.238
62128.58698.136
63127.07096.168
64125.10693.745
65123.57391.855
66121.88189.920
67120.01088.111
68117.91985.747
69116.49583.316
70114.76881.564
71112.61379.168
72110.58777.248
73109.03374.995
74107.47272.983
75105.93370.753
76103.86668.765
77101.65366.601
7899.60964.606
7997.13362.700
8095.27860.210
8192.79357.879
8290.80055.672
8388.77053.179
8486.01951.103
8583.58449.314
8681.08846.921
8778.80644.475
8876.09442.523
8973.88240.202
9070.30837.652
9167.20635.304
9263.95032.573
9360.08529.717
9456.96226.321
9553.37123.946
9649.47121.276
9744.83717.514
9838.79714.409
9930.95510.965


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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