Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile57.11043.842
Median78.08779.374
Mean83.73789.378
75% Quartile104.501124.749
Interquartile Range47.39180.906

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1189.798256.514
2174.686228.832
3164.203217.972
4157.643209.038
5151.381202.413
6146.494193.180
7141.882186.669
8138.612180.562
9135.598174.441
10132.999169.820
11130.535165.967
12127.691161.691
13125.258158.429
14123.137155.144
15120.555151.510
16118.785148.609
17117.366145.200
18115.461141.704
19114.045138.607
20112.685136.152
21110.853133.769
22109.055131.101
23107.588129.226
24106.129126.479
25104.507124.749
26103.368123.254
27102.091120.968
28100.585119.144
2999.398117.015
3098.112114.659
3196.861112.494
3295.668110.283
3394.830108.530
3493.654106.796
3592.565104.405
3691.491102.484
3790.358100.559
3889.01798.758
3988.18797.272
4087.17095.313
4186.44593.411
4285.42491.997
4384.50290.803
4483.46589.158
4582.41187.675
4681.48586.009
4780.71284.495
4879.86582.511
4978.98081.005
5078.08779.374
5177.32077.889
5276.62676.400
5375.82474.655
5475.00972.982
5574.25571.281
5673.32669.216
5772.44867.993
5871.75066.757
5970.79765.399
6069.92763.615
6169.00061.834
6268.10660.533
6367.36559.319
6466.62157.827
6565.66356.667
6664.86855.481
6764.17154.374
6863.36252.932
6962.60251.451
7061.78650.386
7160.92748.931
7259.88347.767
7359.02346.403
7458.02445.187
7557.10843.840
7656.17242.639
7755.37041.333
7854.41640.130
7953.54738.979
8052.54537.476
8151.74736.067
8250.66234.732
8349.73633.220
8448.38531.960
8547.24830.870
8646.38329.408
8745.21927.908
8843.94226.706
8942.87225.270
9041.76723.681
9140.64622.208
9239.45320.479
9337.82118.651
9436.07116.445
9533.97614.878
9632.14913.088
9729.29710.503
9827.4058.302
9923.7835.764


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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