Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile29.66629.109
Median43.46749.083
Mean48.03958.004
75% Quartile62.31177.244
Interquartile Range32.64548.135

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1125.446194.390
2111.159165.510
3104.282154.715
499.745146.083
595.586139.837
691.889131.358
788.780125.542
885.901120.213
983.603114.995
1081.599111.139
1179.286107.978
1277.283104.529
1375.915101.939
1474.81199.366
1573.30596.563
1671.96194.356
1770.80791.800
1869.39589.217
1968.23986.962
2067.38685.197
2166.09383.501
2264.96781.624
2364.10380.319
2463.18678.426
2562.31277.245
2661.38376.232
2760.43474.695
2859.43473.481
2958.56672.075
3057.72470.534
3156.97069.132
3256.15067.714
3355.19966.598
3454.51565.502
3553.68664.004
3652.74062.811
3751.86261.625
3851.05460.522
3950.39959.618
4049.74258.434
4148.99557.292
4248.44756.449
4347.82455.739
4447.02454.767
4546.41953.894
4645.89652.920
4745.14852.038
4844.61350.888
4943.97550.020
5043.46749.083
5142.90148.234
5242.41347.385
5341.80246.394
5441.31645.447
5540.64244.488
5640.03243.326
5739.49342.640
5839.02641.948
5938.49241.188
6038.01840.192
6137.48739.199
6236.96538.474
6336.43437.797
6435.87136.966
6535.36536.319
6634.76435.658
6734.25835.040
6833.74334.234
6933.11133.405
7032.62632.808
7131.98731.990
7231.35631.335
7330.79430.564
7430.23729.874
7529.64629.108
7629.05928.421
7728.50727.671
7827.87526.977
7927.28626.309
8026.44725.432
8125.88524.603
8225.09223.810
8324.55322.906
8423.95422.144
8523.38021.480
8622.87220.580
8722.26319.644
8821.56618.884
8920.84817.964
9020.10816.930
9119.38115.953
9218.62714.782
9317.70813.512
9416.75611.928
9515.61310.764
9613.8529.387
9712.2117.295
9810.9305.393
998.8263.017


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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