Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper ( Feb 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile9.78810.843
Median14.94818.555
Mean18.06925.813
75% Quartile22.87931.859
Interquartile Range13.09121.015

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
162.799131.074
252.99897.792
348.04387.158
444.60579.272
541.64173.882
639.19366.965
737.30262.471
835.51258.524
933.92154.809
1032.72052.156
1131.82350.038
1230.96647.783
1329.93446.128
1429.16744.515
1528.49342.793
1627.63041.462
1727.08539.948
1826.50438.447
1925.94837.160
2025.55536.168
2124.99135.228
2224.47834.200
2323.92533.494
2423.41532.483
2522.87931.859
2622.39931.328
2722.01230.531
2821.59329.908
2921.25629.193
3020.79728.419
3120.42827.722
3220.09527.025
3319.78026.482
3419.48725.953
3519.14525.238
3618.79924.674
3718.49924.118
3818.18523.606
3917.78923.190
4017.50922.649
4117.22622.133
4216.99721.754
4316.69321.437
4416.43221.007
4516.13120.623
4615.86820.197
4715.64219.815
4815.36819.321
4915.16818.951
5014.94818.555
5114.69818.199
5214.50817.845
5314.22517.435
5414.05417.047
5513.77916.657
5613.57816.189
5713.36615.915
5813.15915.640
5912.95915.340
6012.73414.950
6112.54514.564
6212.30614.285
6312.11814.025
6411.87313.710
6511.68213.465
6611.48613.217
6711.29912.987
6811.09512.688
6910.93912.384
7010.74112.166
7110.52611.869
7210.38011.633
7310.14911.358
749.96911.113
759.78710.843
769.55610.603
779.30110.343
789.11310.104
798.9419.875
808.7419.578
818.5419.299
828.3099.036
838.0598.737
847.8378.489
857.6158.273
867.3907.984
877.1357.687
886.9307.449
896.6067.163
906.3796.845
916.0836.549
925.8216.199
935.5435.826
945.1665.371
954.8145.042
964.4714.662
973.8544.101
983.2753.608
992.3213.018


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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