Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper ( Mar 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile12.73913.378
Median20.85823.023
Mean26.93232.252
75% Quartile34.29439.756
Interquartile Range21.55526.377

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1112.561166.020
291.228123.483
379.020109.922
472.97899.876
566.90593.016
663.07184.220
759.59578.512
856.85673.500
954.38568.787
1052.15265.423
1150.33862.739
1248.61459.883
1347.20357.787
1445.75655.745
1544.34453.567
1643.10651.884
1741.85849.969
1840.67848.072
1939.50746.447
2038.60945.194
2137.87844.006
2236.79742.710
2336.01841.819
2435.10540.543
2534.30239.756
2633.49939.087
2732.81438.082
2832.08037.296
2931.48336.396
3030.74335.421
3130.09034.543
3229.45233.666
3328.83432.982
3428.21032.317
3527.81831.416
3627.33430.707
3726.77630.008
3826.25029.364
3925.80428.842
4025.16228.162
4124.70027.513
4224.32027.037
4323.85526.640
4423.39626.099
4522.92925.617
4622.52725.083
4722.04924.603
4821.69423.984
4921.30923.520
5020.85823.023
5120.32922.576
5220.02322.133
5319.68621.620
5419.37921.133
5518.99120.644
5618.70520.058
5718.40719.715
5818.02919.371
5917.68218.995
6017.30818.507
6116.99318.025
6216.69917.675
6316.38917.351
6416.08616.957
6515.77916.651
6615.57216.341
6715.26116.053
6814.94615.680
6914.57615.300
7014.23915.028
7113.91514.658
7213.59914.363
7313.29014.020
7413.03013.714
7512.73313.378
7612.40513.079
7712.08312.754
7811.74812.456
7911.38912.172
8011.07211.802
8110.77411.455
8210.48411.127
8310.06010.756
849.76910.446
859.53410.179
869.1519.819
878.7999.450
888.4199.154
898.0618.799
907.6968.405
917.2958.037
926.8357.604
936.4047.141
945.9106.577
955.4266.171
964.7955.701
974.1585.008
983.3994.400
992.5643.674


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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