Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper ( Jan 2009 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile9.88312.436
Median13.92920.624
Mean15.81127.645
75% Quartile19.65734.309
Interquartile Range9.77421.873

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
146.525129.969
239.79698.638
336.23988.505
433.48480.944
531.78475.751
630.50369.054
729.26664.682
828.28760.826
927.40257.184
1026.59454.574
1125.89452.484
1225.15650.255
1324.65248.614
1424.18047.012
1523.59345.297
1623.03443.970
1722.58042.456
1822.22440.953
1921.73939.661
2021.46338.663
2121.09137.715
2220.75936.679
2320.38435.965
2419.92934.942
2519.65734.310
2619.38533.771
2719.12832.962
2818.87632.327
2918.61731.600
3018.33030.810
3118.08630.098
3217.80929.385
3317.56728.829
3417.27628.286
3516.98227.551
3616.75926.971
3716.54626.399
3816.31825.871
3916.06825.441
4015.87024.882
4115.65224.348
4215.41823.955
4315.20923.627
4415.01523.180
4514.81522.781
4614.61322.338
4714.44521.940
4814.25321.424
4914.07721.038
5013.92920.624
5113.77420.251
5213.59419.880
5313.45319.450
5413.29419.042
5513.08118.631
5612.92818.137
5712.73217.848
5812.56517.557
5912.37117.240
6012.24316.827
6112.09116.418
6211.94216.121
6311.77915.846
6411.65415.510
6511.46315.249
6611.33114.985
6711.19714.738
6811.02314.419
6910.86514.093
7010.69613.859
7110.55413.541
7210.35413.287
7310.22512.991
7410.04312.727
759.88212.436
769.76212.177
779.61611.895
789.41611.636
799.22611.388
809.04511.065
818.87110.762
828.66110.474
838.44510.148
848.2319.876
858.0259.640
867.8429.323
877.6048.996
887.3998.732
897.2128.416
906.9628.065
916.7347.736
926.5087.346
936.1846.929
945.8656.418
955.5416.048
965.1645.617
974.7094.978
984.1514.413
993.4923.730


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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