Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper ( Jan 2011 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile41.43712.436
Median56.64720.624
Mean62.43627.645
75% Quartile76.95934.309
Interquartile Range35.52221.873

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1163.507129.969
2145.40398.638
3134.08188.505
4123.76980.944
5117.90175.751
6113.33169.054
7109.79364.682
8106.78360.826
9104.16357.184
10101.82654.574
1198.82752.484
1296.74750.255
1394.44848.614
1492.29047.012
1590.45545.297
1689.14143.970
1787.94342.456
1886.51240.953
1985.15439.661
2083.61338.663
2182.26637.715
2280.93236.679
2379.56035.965
2478.39334.942
2576.97334.310
2675.83833.771
2774.80532.962
2873.74132.327
2972.94131.600
3071.94530.810
3171.27430.098
3270.40629.385
3369.46728.829
3468.67828.286
3567.72927.551
3666.89426.971
3766.07826.399
3865.36325.871
3964.65325.441
4063.84124.882
4162.92624.348
4262.14723.955
4361.32223.627
4460.73123.180
4560.15622.781
4659.35122.338
4758.58821.940
4857.95921.424
4957.40821.038
5056.64720.624
5156.04420.251
5255.37119.880
5354.65619.450
5453.93619.042
5553.26918.631
5652.75118.137
5752.18517.848
5851.59417.557
5950.98917.240
6050.56716.827
6149.88316.418
6249.29616.121
6348.56115.846
6447.74815.510
6547.27115.249
6646.77514.985
6746.17614.738
6845.60214.419
6945.10314.093
7044.42113.859
7143.82413.541
7243.30413.287
7342.65612.991
7442.07512.727
7541.43012.436
7640.38012.177
7739.74411.895
7839.02411.636
7938.31011.388
8037.68911.065
8137.03010.762
8236.39310.474
8335.77710.148
8435.0729.876
8534.3219.640
8633.6789.323
8732.8128.996
8831.7948.732
8930.8698.416
9029.6768.065
9128.8727.736
9228.0267.346
9327.0556.929
9426.0276.418
9525.0036.048
9623.7645.617
9721.9684.978
9820.1854.413
9917.4213.730


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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