Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


Return to catchment list
Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper



Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper ( Jan 2012 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile31.50612.436
Median43.13020.624
Mean47.91327.645
75% Quartile59.28434.309
Interquartile Range27.77821.873

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1127.491129.969
2113.63198.638
3103.43888.505
495.81680.944
590.93575.751
687.53069.054
784.54764.682
882.26460.826
980.40357.184
1078.01754.574
1176.27152.484
1274.14750.255
1372.63848.614
1471.26147.012
1569.86845.297
1668.80843.970
1767.56442.456
1866.35740.953
1965.28539.661
2064.20138.663
2163.27737.715
2262.04836.679
2360.97935.965
2460.00534.942
2559.28534.310
2658.38933.771
2757.57732.962
2856.58732.327
2955.87731.600
3055.05130.810
3154.41430.098
3253.70029.385
3353.00828.829
3452.47828.286
3551.96027.551
3651.33826.971
3750.58926.399
3850.04025.871
3949.41825.441
4048.77124.882
4148.25224.348
4247.64923.955
4347.12023.627
4446.50423.180
4545.95122.781
4645.35122.338
4744.74621.940
4844.07121.424
4943.67521.038
5043.13020.624
5142.58020.251
5242.05419.880
5341.60019.450
5441.15819.042
5540.60518.631
5640.05818.137
5739.66717.848
5839.26117.557
5938.89517.240
6038.45216.827
6137.93816.418
6237.56716.121
6337.15615.846
6436.62715.510
6536.21815.249
6635.78314.985
6735.30914.738
6834.83714.419
6934.35714.093
7033.93613.859
7133.45013.541
7232.97813.287
7332.49712.991
7431.93412.727
7531.49812.436
7630.85312.177
7730.36111.895
7829.79211.636
7929.44011.388
8028.82711.065
8128.31210.762
8227.68610.474
8327.16510.148
8426.7029.876
8526.1289.640
8625.5369.323
8725.0148.996
8824.3798.732
8923.6968.416
9022.9828.065
9122.2527.736
9221.4957.346
9320.7276.929
9419.8956.418
9518.9996.048
9617.7455.617
9716.6244.978
9815.1604.413
9913.1153.730


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence