Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Probability distribution for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper ( Jan 2013 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile14.08412.436
Median19.60720.624
Mean22.11027.645
75% Quartile27.52334.309
Interquartile Range13.44021.873

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
163.333129.969
254.55198.638
350.13388.505
445.89180.944
543.47775.751
641.65369.054
740.28764.682
838.89860.826
937.86157.184
1036.71354.574
1135.83252.484
1234.96350.255
1333.99448.614
1433.26947.012
1532.59745.297
1631.97343.970
1731.35642.456
1830.78140.953
1930.41639.661
2029.87038.663
2129.35537.715
2228.87436.679
2328.39935.965
2428.01034.942
2527.52534.310
2627.11833.771
2726.75932.962
2826.32632.327
2925.97231.600
3025.59530.810
3125.28030.098
3224.88929.385
3324.53428.829
3424.20028.286
3523.86927.551
3623.48126.971
3723.07526.399
3822.77025.871
3922.48625.441
4022.17224.882
4121.91424.348
4221.62023.955
4321.38623.627
4421.12223.180
4520.87222.781
4620.61122.338
4720.33121.940
4820.06721.424
4919.88121.038
5019.60720.624
5119.34320.251
5219.13119.880
5318.87719.450
5418.62619.042
5518.40418.631
5618.23418.137
5718.01317.848
5817.78217.557
5917.45517.240
6017.24116.827
6117.02216.418
6216.82916.121
6316.68915.846
6416.46415.510
6516.26215.249
6616.06514.985
6715.83814.738
6815.63114.419
6915.47514.093
7015.22113.859
7115.00213.541
7214.76213.287
7314.54712.991
7414.31712.727
7514.08212.436
7613.86712.177
7713.68011.895
7813.41411.636
7913.14311.388
8012.91711.065
8112.65810.762
8212.35510.474
8312.11610.148
8411.7939.876
8511.5859.640
8611.3099.323
8711.0178.996
8810.7328.732
8910.4768.416
9010.1758.065
919.8677.736
929.4137.346
939.0856.929
948.5216.418
958.1186.048
967.5755.617
976.9544.978
986.2584.413
995.3743.730


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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