Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper( Jul 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jul39.86826.5925.03322.549189.918
Jul-Aug89.45770.7219.42550.243311.206
Jul-Sep137.142116.39113.32885.142408.635

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10300.401259.686
20253.105207.357
30222.948174.077
40197.391144.298
50175.039119.974
60154.58596.207
70136.29176.549
80114.63457.689
9089.32037.951

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1452.998394.721
2403.051351.590
3380.838334.672
4363.643320.754
5349.717310.434
6336.668296.054
7322.155285.915
8312.937276.407
9306.339266.878
10300.401259.686
11294.119253.690
12288.655247.038
13283.057241.965
14278.401236.856
15273.913231.208
16269.329226.699
17265.067221.403
18261.209215.974
19256.671211.166
20253.105207.357
21249.224203.659
22246.620199.522
23243.885196.617
24240.178192.361
25236.936189.682
26234.035187.367
27231.266183.829
28229.047181.008
29226.230177.716
30222.948174.077
31220.545170.733
32217.844167.323
33215.134164.620
34212.397161.947
35210.289158.265
36207.754155.310
37204.976152.351
38201.860149.583
39199.561147.303
40197.391144.298
41194.644141.383
42192.444139.219
43190.185137.392
44187.836134.878
45185.464132.612
46183.536130.071
47181.205127.762
48179.150124.742
49177.083122.452
50175.039119.974
51172.648117.721
52170.749115.465
53168.896112.823
54166.756110.294
55164.884107.728
56162.516104.615
57160.616102.776
58158.496100.918
59157.02498.880
60154.58596.207
61153.16393.543
62151.55391.601
63150.07889.790
64148.31787.570
65146.31685.844
66144.14784.084
67142.26082.443
68140.44080.308
69138.88978.120
70136.29176.549
71133.87874.406
72131.53072.695
73128.91770.694
74127.24068.912
75125.26366.942
76123.32565.190
77121.47563.287
78119.15661.536
79116.54159.867
80114.63457.689
81112.91655.653
82111.09653.726
83108.18651.551
84105.88949.741
85103.41648.179
86101.08346.089
8798.58843.950
8895.65842.239
8992.29140.200
9089.32037.951
9186.22835.871
9283.38433.438
9379.68630.874
9475.68927.793
9570.74725.612
9665.99123.130
9760.08519.566
9853.02716.548
9943.32113.093


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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