Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Apr11.4115.8371.4726.793103.370
Apr-May26.07411.3914.68313.611225.136
Apr-Jun48.88125.9938.48123.651416.604

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1091.636
2063.609
3050.013
4039.883
5032.692
6026.354
7021.458
8016.905
9012.093

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1229.726
2171.527
3152.923
4139.121
5129.686
6117.576
7109.707
8102.792
996.285
1091.636
1187.924
1283.973
1381.072
1478.245
1575.226
1672.893
1770.237
1867.606
1965.349
2063.609
2161.959
2260.157
2358.918
2457.143
2556.049
2655.118
2753.720
2852.625
2951.371
3050.013
3148.790
3247.566
3346.613
3445.685
3544.428
3643.438
3742.462
3841.563
3940.833
4039.883
4138.976
4238.311
4337.755
4436.998
4536.324
4635.577
4734.905
4834.038
4933.388
5032.692
5132.066
5231.444
5330.724
5430.042
5529.356
5628.533
5728.051
5827.567
5927.040
6026.354
6125.676
6225.185
6324.729
6424.174
6523.745
6623.308
6722.903
6822.378
6921.842
7021.458
7120.937
7220.522
7320.037
7419.606
7519.131
7618.709
7718.251
7817.830
7917.429
8016.905
8116.415
8215.950
8315.425
8414.987
8514.608
8614.099
8713.576
8813.156
8912.652
9012.093
9111.571
9210.955
9310.297
949.494
958.915
968.244
977.254
986.385
995.344


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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