Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Oct43.57224.94534.1221.73624.98691.460
Oct-Nov70.91660.60156.4193.27443.316144.692
Oct-Dec90.909115.77969.1514.07768.500258.025

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1099.885169.820
2082.892136.152
3071.647114.659
4062.86395.313
5055.58079.374
6049.52263.615
7042.85650.386
8036.01837.476
9028.25723.681

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1151.067256.514
2137.031228.832
3128.256217.972
4121.524209.038
5115.525202.413
6111.732193.180
7108.493186.669
8105.468180.562
9103.027174.441
1099.885169.820
1197.410165.967
1295.375161.691
1393.932158.429
1491.689155.144
1590.057151.510
1688.556148.609
1787.028145.200
1885.553141.704
1983.993138.607
2082.892136.152
2181.560133.769
2280.308131.101
2379.212129.226
2478.282126.479
2576.972124.749
2675.557123.254
2774.664120.968
2873.670119.144
2972.686117.015
3071.647114.659
3170.430112.494
3269.659110.283
3368.840108.530
3467.977106.796
3567.123104.405
3666.171102.484
3765.232100.559
3864.46598.758
3963.69297.272
4062.86395.313
4162.17793.411
4261.45691.997
4360.62790.803
4459.92889.158
4558.97487.675
4658.22686.009
4757.75684.495
4856.92682.511
4956.28681.005
5055.58079.374
5155.00777.889
5254.43376.400
5353.76774.655
5453.09272.982
5552.42571.281
5651.89669.216
5751.13567.993
5850.54566.757
5950.00765.399
6049.52263.615
6148.65061.834
6248.15560.533
6347.59759.319
6446.95557.827
6546.18356.667
6645.51555.481
6744.89554.374
6844.19652.932
6943.53551.451
7042.85650.386
7142.21248.931
7241.62447.767
7340.94846.403
7440.17145.187
7539.53043.840
7638.84342.639
7738.15641.333
7837.48740.130
7936.73538.979
8036.01837.476
8135.42136.067
8234.70134.732
8334.05233.220
8433.10631.960
8532.26130.870
8631.63629.408
8730.92327.908
8830.11826.706
8929.06125.270
9028.25723.681
9127.46022.208
9226.33920.479
9325.19918.651
9424.03416.445
9522.56314.878
9620.79313.088
9719.08310.503
9817.6028.302
9914.4275.764


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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