Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1983) (GL)
Nov27.34535.65522.2971.53818.33051.004
Nov-Dec47.33790.83335.0292.34243.51489.530
Nov-Jan59.512112.79941.7763.21551.699190.291

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1077.425111.139
2063.83085.197
3054.68270.534
4047.13658.434
5040.88049.083
6035.73840.192
7030.61532.808
8024.82725.432
9018.60416.930

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1119.731194.390
2107.355165.510
3100.875154.715
495.778146.083
591.808139.837
687.920131.358
785.028125.542
882.212120.213
979.682114.995
1077.425111.139
1175.599107.978
1274.201104.529
1372.665101.939
1471.18299.366
1569.71296.563
1668.31294.356
1767.20891.800
1865.81089.217
1964.82386.962
2063.83085.197
2162.70483.501
2261.73481.624
2360.95980.319
2460.11678.426
2559.17177.245
2658.28876.232
2757.60774.695
2856.65773.481
2955.66372.075
3054.68270.534
3153.52569.132
3252.80567.714
3351.97266.598
3451.03465.502
3550.24264.004
3649.75862.811
3749.14261.625
3848.40960.522
3947.72059.618
4047.13658.434
4146.38657.292
4245.83856.449
4345.28055.739
4444.58054.767
4543.90753.894
4643.18252.920
4742.63752.038
4841.90550.888
4941.37550.020
5040.88049.083
5140.41348.234
5239.86547.385
5339.33846.394
5438.78145.447
5538.24444.488
5637.78843.326
5737.34642.640
5836.79041.948
5936.24541.188
6035.73840.192
6135.21139.199
6234.73538.474
6334.24737.797
6433.68136.966
6533.21136.319
6632.77935.658
6732.39235.040
6831.85534.234
6931.16233.405
7030.61532.808
7130.04831.990
7229.61931.335
7329.09130.564
7428.36629.874
7527.76629.108
7627.17828.421
7726.68427.671
7825.97526.977
7925.43726.309
8024.82725.432
8124.28824.603
8223.75523.810
8323.10222.906
8422.63022.144
8522.04221.480
8621.25420.580
8720.55919.644
8819.84618.884
8919.32117.964
9018.60416.930
9118.03115.953
9217.18214.782
9316.39413.512
9415.41811.928
9514.49710.764
9613.0339.387
9711.4337.295
989.9925.393
997.7253.017


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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