Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Dec19.99255.17812.7330.80425.184113.332
Dec-Jan32.16777.14419.4801.67833.369135.831
Dec-Feb40.144100.93425.3323.15142.321171.765

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1059.16075.448
2047.03854.918
3040.17144.340
4034.72536.125
5030.08030.044
6026.24724.461
7022.48120.010
8018.68715.670
9014.18610.832

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1100.756163.858
287.657128.536
380.306116.657
474.661107.764
571.039101.366
668.08593.390
765.02088.063
862.68183.266
960.63778.725
1059.16075.448
1157.34272.815
1255.95570.000
1354.54167.898
1453.36365.816
1552.33763.599
1651.04161.895
1750.11859.900
1848.90057.918
1947.86556.225
2047.03854.918
2146.22453.666
2245.53152.239
2344.71251.334
2444.00749.948
2543.26349.110
2642.52048.388
2741.95947.266
2841.39546.390
2940.70145.431
3040.17144.340
3139.45043.377
3238.96842.371
3338.21841.606
3437.69040.890
3537.26039.846
3636.79039.057
3736.36338.251
3835.83137.523
3935.25836.912
4034.72536.125
4134.10635.366
4233.74134.819
4333.28234.343
4432.78933.714
4532.19733.149
4631.80532.504
4731.38631.949
4831.06831.208
4930.50830.640
5030.08030.044
5129.78829.505
5229.34128.977
5328.85928.330
5428.49827.755
5528.17027.119
5627.75626.421
5727.41125.993
5827.00925.556
5926.59825.094
6026.24724.461
6125.82623.865
6225.48523.427
6325.08723.010
6424.64522.515
6524.31222.123
6623.95621.722
6723.57421.350
6823.21720.865
6922.79120.367
7022.48120.010
7122.18819.523
7221.80419.133
7321.48218.676
7421.12918.268
7520.75817.816
7620.38617.413
7719.98716.974
7819.57116.568
7919.16316.179
8018.68715.670
8118.29515.190
8217.87114.733
8317.53414.214
8417.06713.778
8516.64713.399
8616.21012.887
8715.69112.357
8815.29611.928
8914.71411.411
9014.18610.832
9113.68210.288
9212.8779.639
9312.2588.939
9411.6488.072
9510.9787.439
9610.2366.696
979.4695.577
988.3944.571
996.6183.331


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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