Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jun22.93723.70114.6024.8009.136191.468
Jun-Jul63.01663.06741.1948.91230.093381.386
Jun-Aug112.692104.16585.32413.08358.898502.674

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10155.562232.641
20123.394168.008
30101.659132.899
4084.441105.432
5070.99985.484
6058.97267.785
7048.91754.163
8038.22941.647
9026.08128.720

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1256.092436.316
2227.162367.546
3207.832341.268
4195.744320.041
5188.117304.567
6180.710283.430
7171.454268.861
8166.090255.473
9159.560242.346
10155.562232.641
11151.014224.692
12147.550216.027
13144.019209.532
14140.967203.093
15136.937196.095
16133.947190.603
17130.603184.259
18128.268177.878
19125.229172.332
20123.394168.008
21121.242163.871
22118.791159.312
23115.817156.155
24114.006151.596
25111.501148.766
26109.109146.347
27107.480142.693
28105.557139.818
29103.434136.506
30101.659132.899
3199.957129.635
3298.009126.353
3396.426123.786
3494.910121.278
3592.812117.870
3691.449115.174
3789.663112.510
3887.907110.049
3986.150108.044
4084.441105.432
4182.644102.931
4281.078101.094
4379.77799.556
4478.51697.461
4577.19895.591
4676.11093.516
4774.87891.649
4873.48689.235
4972.32187.425
5070.99985.484
5169.75483.737
5268.58082.002
5367.60979.991
5466.33478.085
5564.87176.169
5663.82573.870
5762.38972.524
5861.17571.172
5960.07769.700
6058.97267.785
6158.01265.892
6257.00064.523
6356.08263.253
6455.27761.706
6554.29660.510
6653.25259.296
6751.97658.170
6851.13656.712
6949.95255.225
7048.91754.163
7148.24652.720
7247.20751.573
7346.15850.235
7445.05649.048
7544.06247.741
7642.67446.582
7741.60545.326
7840.44044.173
7939.34243.076
8038.22941.647
8137.22840.314
8236.22039.053
8334.86637.632
8433.54136.449
8532.41935.428
8631.16534.062
8729.97732.661
8828.70831.540
8927.47130.201
9026.08128.720
9124.80127.344
9223.38325.728
9322.06124.014
9420.17921.936
9518.29520.451
9616.77318.743
9714.87216.249
9812.83614.091
999.19011.551


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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