Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Sep47.71735.10145.6693.90334.663116.349
Sep-Oct91.13969.22369.1285.63962.122248.506
Sep-Nov118.40391.52083.9757.17682.202293.324

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10187.618217.242
20160.514177.917
30140.757152.280
40125.022128.579
50112.662108.391
60101.09287.652
7089.23569.574
8076.01251.469
9061.30732.151

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1278.273316.832
2251.378285.142
3235.292272.693
4222.561262.440
5213.637254.830
6206.779244.211
7201.212236.710
8196.284229.665
9191.657222.591
10187.618217.242
11184.573212.775
12181.473207.809
13178.309204.015
14175.396200.187
15171.866195.947
16169.381192.554
17167.332188.561
18165.128184.457
19162.396180.812
20160.514177.917
21158.186175.100
22156.221171.941
23153.696169.716
24151.632166.450
25149.024164.387
26147.358162.602
27145.835159.867
28144.294157.679
29142.613155.120
30140.757152.280
31139.075149.662
32137.193146.981
33135.892144.850
34134.164142.735
35132.528139.810
36130.917137.452
37129.492135.082
38128.334132.855
39126.606131.015
40125.022128.579
41123.720126.206
42122.484124.436
43121.204122.937
44119.884120.866
45118.892118.993
46117.445116.882
47116.125114.955
48114.937112.422
49113.646110.491
50112.662108.391
51111.443106.473
52110.373104.542
53109.030102.269
54107.830100.081
55106.85897.848
56105.65795.121
57104.35193.500
58103.14691.856
59102.06590.043
60101.09287.652
6199.81585.254
6298.37283.495
6397.22281.847
6496.15579.817
6595.22378.232
6694.06476.607
6792.98075.086
6891.74773.098
6990.36571.051
7089.23569.574
7188.14467.552
7286.70265.930
7385.35964.025
7484.12962.322
7582.87160.433
7681.66258.745
7780.13256.908
7878.65655.212
7977.34553.590
8076.01251.469
8174.48449.481
8273.36147.596
8371.98945.466
8470.70143.690
8568.95242.158
8667.72940.108
8766.22938.010
8864.58936.335
8963.02834.342
9061.30732.151
9159.38330.131
9257.81927.783
9355.52725.326
9452.64822.404
9550.53420.362
9647.98918.067
9744.52414.836
9839.53312.175
9932.2849.230


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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