Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1968) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Jan12.0786.7475.4801.7828.66721.966
Jan-Feb20.11912.59911.0212.44617.94745.756
Jan-Mar32.60020.42320.0723.56544.042256.355

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1029.86554.574
2024.10338.663
3020.62230.810
4017.84624.882
5015.72120.624
6013.81616.827
7012.13613.859
8010.28511.065
907.9898.065

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
151.892129.969
244.50198.638
340.89488.505
437.25780.944
535.53275.751
634.03869.054
732.77364.682
831.79160.826
930.65957.184
1029.86554.574
1129.09052.484
1228.40750.255
1327.59248.614
1427.04847.012
1526.35345.297
1625.89843.970
1725.35742.456
1824.92240.953
1924.58639.661
2024.10338.663
2123.69337.715
2223.35936.679
2322.86935.965
2422.50034.942
2522.10734.310
2621.83733.771
2721.53932.962
2821.24332.327
2920.93331.600
3020.62230.810
3120.35830.098
3220.10729.385
3319.80728.829
3419.46128.286
3519.22127.551
3618.94526.971
3718.61626.399
3818.39025.871
3918.11325.441
4017.84624.882
4117.63024.348
4217.38723.955
4317.17923.627
4416.98023.180
4516.74022.781
4616.51222.338
4716.31321.940
4816.09921.424
4915.92621.038
5015.72120.624
5115.55420.251
5215.36019.880
5315.20419.450
5414.97419.042
5514.80218.631
5614.58118.137
5714.41517.848
5814.22517.557
5914.02417.240
6013.81616.827
6113.63416.418
6213.48316.121
6313.32615.846
6413.15915.510
6513.01615.249
6612.83014.985
6712.66414.738
6812.49614.419
6912.33614.093
7012.13613.859
7111.98213.541
7211.76713.287
7311.60712.991
7411.38412.727
7511.20812.436
7611.05612.177
7710.88211.895
7810.68711.636
7910.49111.388
8010.28511.065
8110.06810.762
829.83910.474
839.62010.148
849.3749.876
859.1079.640
868.9359.323
878.7348.996
888.4788.732
898.2548.416
907.9898.065
917.7257.736
927.4637.346
937.0996.929
946.7426.418
956.3786.048
965.9165.617
975.4544.978
984.8714.413
994.0703.730


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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