Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper


Return to catchment list
Product list for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper



Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Goodradigbee River at Wee Jasper ( Jan 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (1968) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Jan11.9824.7092.8421.7826.72511.394
Jan-Feb19.4026.9486.7392.44611.52025.653
Jan-Mar28.6238.83212.7163.56515.032154.561

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1023.92354.574
2019.15338.663
3016.34030.810
4014.11324.882
5012.34820.624
6010.83716.827
709.44513.859
807.96111.065
906.0808.065

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
141.786129.969
236.08298.638
332.36188.505
430.14480.944
528.63775.751
627.33169.054
726.33864.682
825.36360.826
924.46457.184
1023.92354.574
1123.11552.484
1222.45650.255
1321.99348.614
1421.62447.012
1521.04545.297
1620.64243.970
1720.22742.456
1819.78340.953
1919.46539.661
2019.15338.663
2118.82737.715
2218.46336.679
2318.11835.965
2417.80734.942
2517.55334.310
2617.31033.771
2717.02932.962
2816.74732.327
2916.58531.600
3016.34030.810
3116.11430.098
3215.80229.385
3315.58028.829
3415.35428.286
3515.15227.551
3614.93226.971
3714.71326.399
3814.51125.871
3914.32225.441
4014.11324.882
4113.91224.348
4213.71523.955
4313.53823.627
4413.37223.180
4513.17822.781
4612.97222.338
4712.82121.940
4812.64921.424
4912.52421.038
5012.34820.624
5112.20620.251
5212.06819.880
5311.90919.450
5411.76419.042
5511.61618.631
5611.46518.137
5711.31517.848
5811.15917.557
5910.99017.240
6010.83716.827
6110.73416.418
6210.60916.121
6310.45315.846
6410.32615.510
6510.17015.249
6610.03614.985
679.88614.738
689.75414.419
699.59114.093
709.44513.859
719.29413.541
729.14613.287
739.01812.991
748.87912.727
758.75912.436
768.63612.177
778.49311.895
788.34811.636
798.12111.388
807.96111.065
817.79810.762
827.61810.474
837.40810.148
847.2619.876
857.0749.640
866.8529.323
876.6728.996
886.4928.732
896.2978.416
906.0808.065
915.8937.736
925.6847.346
935.3816.929
945.1356.418
954.8416.048
964.4835.617
974.0664.978
983.5784.413
992.9343.730


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence