Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Product list for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1030.70656.665
2024.60644.814
3020.95637.299
4018.17530.606
5015.79525.178
6013.70019.927
7011.59615.639
809.57511.583
907.1237.414

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
148.57087.288
243.46077.506
340.25773.669
437.94970.512
536.44868.172
634.86364.910
733.62862.611
832.46060.455
931.57958.295
1030.70656.665
1129.92155.306
1229.31153.799
1328.49952.649
1427.76851.492
1527.11950.212
1626.55349.191
1725.99547.992
1825.48746.763
1924.96845.675
2024.60644.814
2124.21243.978
2223.71043.042
2323.24142.386
2422.81641.424
2522.43940.819
2622.12540.297
2721.79039.498
2821.49938.861
2921.23038.119
3020.95637.299
3120.55436.545
3220.21035.777
3319.94535.169
3419.63334.568
3519.40933.740
3619.11133.076
3718.87632.411
3818.63831.790
3918.43031.279
4018.17530.606
4117.89429.953
4217.63629.469
4317.37329.060
4417.14628.498
4516.89427.993
4616.70327.426
4716.43126.911
4816.21726.238
4915.99025.729
5015.79525.178
5115.60724.678
5215.35424.177
5315.19723.592
5414.98023.032
5514.74922.465
5614.48321.778
5714.34121.372
5814.16320.963
5913.89420.515
6013.70019.927
6113.48619.343
6213.24518.918
6313.01518.521
6412.82018.036
6512.62517.660
6612.44217.276
6712.20016.919
6812.01916.454
6911.87815.979
7011.59615.639
7111.36215.175
7211.11814.805
7310.91514.373
7410.71913.989
7510.57513.565
7610.39313.189
7710.19812.780
7810.02612.405
799.81012.048
809.57511.583
819.38711.150
829.17610.740
838.91910.278
848.6529.895
858.4389.564
868.1709.123
877.9518.672
887.6508.313
897.4077.885
907.1237.414
916.8046.980
926.4396.473
936.0965.941
945.7155.304
955.3314.854
964.8584.344
974.3343.615
983.6373.002
992.8332.304


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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