Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Product list for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1035.38656.665
2028.66644.814
3024.50837.299
4021.41830.606
5018.83325.178
6016.34519.927
7013.99615.639
8011.57711.583
908.7687.414

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
155.72487.288
249.37277.506
345.70673.669
443.59270.512
541.46268.172
639.76964.910
738.32562.611
837.17560.455
936.19458.295
1035.38656.665
1134.41355.306
1233.51553.799
1332.78152.649
1432.00851.492
1531.45550.212
1630.98549.191
1730.35947.992
1829.68346.763
1929.05445.675
2028.66644.814
2128.11943.978
2227.70043.042
2327.31242.386
2426.76941.424
2526.27640.819
2625.93340.297
2725.52439.498
2825.18038.861
2924.90038.119
3024.50837.299
3124.18236.545
3223.80535.777
3323.52235.169
3423.22834.568
3522.94033.740
3622.58333.076
3722.36032.411
3822.05131.790
3921.68531.279
4021.41830.606
4121.14529.953
4220.86229.469
4320.56229.060
4420.24528.498
4519.97727.993
4619.75027.426
4719.48526.911
4819.31226.238
4919.06625.729
5018.83325.178
5118.52924.678
5218.22924.177
5317.97423.592
5417.74623.032
5517.47922.465
5617.24021.778
5717.05321.372
5816.80020.963
5916.58920.515
6016.34519.927
6116.11019.343
6215.89618.918
6315.63918.521
6415.38218.036
6515.18217.660
6614.95917.276
6714.67416.919
6814.42816.454
6914.20215.979
7013.99615.639
7113.78615.175
7213.57814.805
7313.36114.373
7413.14413.989
7512.88513.565
7612.64813.189
7712.38512.780
7812.13312.405
7911.88312.048
8011.57711.583
8111.32811.150
8211.08310.740
8310.82710.278
8410.5769.895
8510.3529.564
869.9829.123
879.7228.672
889.5038.313
899.1867.885
908.7687.414
918.3256.980
928.0246.473
937.5445.941
947.1725.304
956.7454.854
966.1144.344
975.5893.615
984.9653.002
993.8142.304


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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