Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.56541.643
2012.59432.436
3010.80426.603
409.38121.435
508.27517.289
607.24713.352
706.34510.221
805.3717.358
904.1314.546

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
125.50265.392
222.44157.811
320.52754.837
419.33652.389
518.49450.574
617.64448.044
717.09746.260
816.54044.586
915.99242.909
1015.56541.643
1115.16940.588
1214.80839.417
1314.49038.524
1414.20537.625
1513.83736.631
1613.54135.837
1713.36834.906
1813.10733.951
1912.87533.105
2012.59432.436
2112.38631.786
2212.24231.060
2312.01430.550
2411.83829.803
2511.68229.334
2611.46128.928
2711.28828.308
2811.11227.815
2910.98027.239
3010.80426.603
3110.64426.020
3210.46825.425
3310.35624.955
3410.20024.490
3510.07423.850
369.93523.337
379.80022.825
389.64222.346
399.49821.953
409.38121.435
419.24620.934
429.11020.562
439.01420.249
448.92019.819
458.82119.432
468.71418.999
478.60518.606
488.49918.094
498.38117.707
508.27517.289
518.18516.910
528.08416.532
537.96716.090
547.84715.669
557.70915.243
567.60814.728
577.52914.425
587.42514.121
597.33513.787
607.24713.352
617.14912.920
627.04712.606
636.96212.315
646.87311.960
656.78111.684
666.70311.405
676.62311.145
686.53310.809
696.45710.466
706.34510.221
716.2599.888
726.1669.623
736.0939.316
745.9989.043
755.8948.743
765.8118.478
775.6998.191
785.5897.929
795.4857.681
805.3717.358
815.2697.059
825.1456.777
835.0266.462
844.9116.201
854.8035.978
864.6665.680
874.5355.379
884.4085.139
894.2734.856
904.1314.546
914.0024.263
923.8373.935
933.6813.593
943.4443.188
953.1962.905
962.9822.588
972.7012.141
982.4351.771
991.9001.359


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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