Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Product list for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.80412.085
206.2068.510
305.2816.688
404.5305.306
503.9394.319
603.4133.450
702.9332.781
802.4082.164
901.7901.520

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113.73625.389
211.97820.588
310.74718.827
49.93917.438
59.37316.447
68.98015.123
78.63314.230
88.33113.425
98.05412.649
107.80412.085
117.59911.628
127.39111.136
137.20110.771
147.01310.412
156.86410.026
166.7089.725
176.5689.380
186.4479.037
196.3158.740
206.2068.510
216.1148.292
226.0128.052
235.9147.887
245.8277.650
255.7447.503
265.6647.378
275.5707.189
285.4687.042
295.3756.872
305.2816.688
315.1856.522
325.1136.356
335.0376.226
344.9616.099
354.8825.928
364.8235.793
374.7625.659
384.6835.536
394.6095.436
404.5305.306
414.4625.182
424.3985.091
434.3425.014
444.2984.911
454.2454.818
464.1924.716
474.1294.623
484.0694.504
494.0024.415
503.9394.319
513.8884.233
523.8154.148
533.7694.049
543.7033.955
553.6563.861
563.6103.748
573.5633.682
583.5133.616
593.4653.544
603.4133.450
613.3613.357
623.3223.290
633.2733.227
643.2233.152
653.1703.093
663.1243.033
673.0802.978
683.0262.906
692.9792.833
702.9332.781
712.8822.710
722.8262.654
732.7552.588
742.6972.529
752.6602.465
762.6072.408
772.5622.346
782.5092.289
792.4732.234
802.4082.164
812.3422.098
822.2782.035
832.2221.965
842.1671.906
852.1091.855
862.0511.787
871.9931.717
881.9391.661
891.8641.594
901.7901.520
911.7041.450
921.6311.369
931.5581.282
941.4511.177
951.3301.101
961.2251.014
971.1030.886
980.9570.774
990.7090.641


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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