Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Product list for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1010.54414.361
208.24110.297
306.9358.267
405.9016.726
505.0685.610
604.3864.606
703.6773.823
803.0413.076
902.2272.266

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
118.93433.098
216.12025.419
314.76622.889
413.66321.013
512.85919.675
612.27918.021
711.80616.925
811.30515.944
910.85815.022
1010.54414.361
1110.29013.832
1210.02713.268
139.80812.850
149.55612.436
159.25311.997
169.03211.661
178.79211.269
188.56610.881
198.40010.551
208.24110.297
218.10710.054
227.9389.778
237.7909.604
247.6599.337
257.5269.176
267.4039.038
277.2578.823
287.1398.656
297.0238.474
306.9358.267
316.8318.084
326.7407.894
336.6337.750
346.5207.615
356.4217.420
366.3157.272
376.2317.122
386.0976.986
396.0116.872
405.9016.726
415.7906.586
425.6906.485
435.6176.397
445.5126.281
455.4256.177
465.3666.059
475.2735.957
485.2015.822
495.1345.718
505.0685.610
515.0045.512
524.9335.417
534.8725.300
544.8015.196
554.7245.082
564.6644.956
574.6074.880
584.5194.801
594.4514.719
604.3864.606
614.3014.501
624.2374.423
634.1754.349
644.1114.262
654.0144.193
663.9524.122
673.8944.057
683.8293.972
693.7523.885
703.6773.823
713.6183.738
723.5643.670
733.5073.591
743.4413.521
753.3873.443
763.3113.374
773.2473.298
783.1803.229
793.0913.162
803.0413.076
812.9792.994
822.9082.917
832.8352.829
842.7752.756
852.6832.692
862.5912.606
872.5182.518
882.4372.447
892.3172.361
902.2272.266
912.1372.176
922.0462.071
931.9061.957
941.7991.817
951.6621.716
961.5231.598
971.3671.422
981.1401.266
990.8871.076


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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