Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Product list for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108.20619.106
206.71113.423
305.70210.593
404.9198.451
504.2806.902
603.7055.513
703.1984.431
802.6423.401
901.9442.288

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
114.85945.524
212.86134.662
311.67231.092
411.03428.451
510.34926.567
69.61224.241
79.27422.702
88.89821.326
98.53420.033
108.20619.106
117.96718.364
127.75717.576
137.59616.990
147.47316.411
157.33415.798
167.21915.328
177.08614.780
186.93114.238
196.81813.777
206.71113.423
216.60113.084
226.49412.699
236.36612.455
246.24912.083
256.14311.859
266.04411.667
275.96411.368
285.86311.135
295.77710.881
305.70210.593
315.61810.339
325.54610.074
335.4619.874
345.3589.687
355.2819.414
365.2119.209
375.1429.000
385.0588.811
394.9788.653
404.9198.451
414.8518.256
424.7808.115
434.7197.994
444.6507.833
454.5767.689
464.5167.525
474.4507.384
484.4007.196
494.3327.052
504.2806.902
514.2226.767
524.1716.634
534.1226.472
544.0536.329
553.9976.170
563.9305.997
573.8735.891
583.8135.783
593.7635.669
603.7055.513
613.6405.367
623.5925.259
633.5465.157
643.4955.037
653.4414.941
663.3934.844
673.3604.754
683.3004.637
693.2514.517
703.1984.431
713.1344.314
723.0764.220
733.0314.111
742.9744.014
752.9223.907
762.8763.811
772.8183.707
782.7563.612
792.6993.520
802.6423.401
812.5613.289
822.5033.182
832.4343.062
842.3762.961
852.3182.873
862.2692.756
872.2032.634
882.1242.537
892.0292.419
901.9442.288
911.8662.166
921.7742.021
931.6791.865
941.5811.674
951.4801.535
961.3651.374
971.2021.133
981.0190.920
990.6990.662


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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