Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Product list for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1077.21570.339
2062.68658.024
3054.04949.983
4046.66742.529
5040.87336.149
6035.44829.542
7030.44923.710
8024.92617.766
9018.31511.268

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1121.772101.503
2108.15091.587
3100.21887.692
494.18984.484
590.14582.103
686.34678.780
783.88176.433
881.57074.228
979.43372.014
1077.21570.339
1175.18168.941
1273.16367.386
1371.47166.199
1470.21965.000
1568.48363.672
1667.28762.610
1766.00061.359
1864.80160.073
1963.70258.931
2062.68658.024
2161.87657.141
2261.13656.151
2360.11755.454
2459.30954.429
2558.45753.783
2657.57953.223
2756.75552.364
2855.95151.678
2954.90850.875
3054.04949.983
3153.27249.161
3252.36648.319
3351.40147.649
3450.65046.984
3549.96746.064
3649.18545.323
3748.48444.577
3847.84143.876
3947.24143.296
4046.66742.529
4146.06741.781
4245.36741.222
4344.80940.749
4444.25140.096
4543.83839.504
4643.21338.837
4742.57338.227
4842.00737.426
4941.34536.814
5040.87336.149
5140.21835.540
5239.69534.928
5339.18234.205
5438.60033.510
5537.95232.799
5637.42031.929
5736.87531.412
5836.44830.887
5935.91530.307
6035.44829.542
6135.04528.773
6234.40528.208
6334.01127.678
6433.42927.024
6532.88826.513
6632.42725.989
6731.93925.497
6831.42924.854
6930.98024.190
7030.44923.710
7129.96623.052
7229.47222.523
7328.97821.901
7428.45821.343
7527.69120.724
7627.10420.170
7726.62919.564
7826.15019.005
7925.56518.469
8024.92617.766
8124.29217.105
8223.56916.477
8322.96515.765
8422.45015.171
8521.66314.656
8621.06913.966
8720.40613.258
8819.72512.691
8918.98312.014
9018.31511.268
9117.66310.578
9216.7619.773
9315.8988.928
9414.8997.919
9514.1087.210
9613.0126.412
9711.7205.284
989.7844.350
997.0523.311


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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