Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Product list for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara



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Exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.67614.361
205.96610.297
304.9498.267
404.1706.726
503.5535.610
603.0594.606
702.5463.823
802.0693.076
901.4532.266

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
114.06433.098
212.02325.419
310.83222.889
410.05421.013
59.43419.675
68.96318.021
78.63916.925
88.19615.944
97.89815.022
107.67614.361
117.47413.832
127.29813.268
137.11712.850
146.90912.436
156.70911.997
166.53111.661
176.36011.269
186.19210.881
196.07910.551
205.96610.297
215.81610.054
225.7179.778
235.6079.604
245.4999.337
255.3869.176
265.2979.038
275.1928.823
285.0988.656
295.0388.474
304.9498.267
314.8488.084
324.7697.894
334.6947.750
344.6187.615
354.5407.420
364.4727.272
374.3857.122
384.3176.986
394.2536.872
404.1706.726
414.0986.586
424.0296.485
433.9586.397
443.9016.281
453.8466.177
463.7856.059
473.7185.957
483.6635.822
493.6165.718
503.5535.610
513.5055.512
523.4645.417
533.4105.300
543.3585.196
553.3085.082
563.2494.956
573.2154.880
583.1674.801
593.1124.719
603.0594.606
613.0094.501
622.9384.423
632.8874.349
642.8324.262
652.7774.193
662.7364.122
672.6834.057
682.6383.972
692.5883.885
702.5463.823
712.4983.738
722.4433.670
732.3983.591
742.3523.521
752.3033.443
762.2603.374
772.2063.298
782.1633.229
792.1003.162
802.0693.076
812.0262.994
821.9642.917
831.9142.829
841.8422.756
851.7912.692
861.7302.606
871.6782.518
881.6112.447
891.5222.361
901.4532.266
911.3922.176
921.3182.071
931.2331.957
941.1431.817
951.0461.716
960.9481.598
970.8171.422
980.6191.266
990.4111.076


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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