Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Product list for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Probability distribution for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara( Aug 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile22.02218.859
Median33.60934.461
Mean36.87337.437
75% Quartile48.80652.472
Interquartile Range26.78433.613

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
194.367101.143
285.43591.035
380.36787.065
476.17083.794
573.10881.366
671.46677.977
769.04675.584
867.29473.335
965.53171.077
1064.16469.369
1162.76867.943
1261.30266.357
1359.91965.146
1458.60663.923
1557.48362.568
1656.26861.484
1755.45860.207
1854.42458.895
1953.49557.729
2052.70556.803
2151.78555.902
2251.07554.891
2350.28754.179
2449.58853.133
2548.80752.472
2648.13751.901
2747.30751.024
2846.57350.323
2945.79449.502
3045.12148.592
3144.59647.752
3243.85546.892
3343.23946.207
3442.46245.528
3541.86644.588
3641.19043.831
3740.76143.068
3840.04542.352
3939.40441.760
4038.80740.976
4138.40140.211
4237.94939.641
4337.44139.158
4436.80938.490
4536.36137.886
4635.75937.205
4735.30536.582
4834.78335.764
4934.18735.140
5033.60934.461
5133.11233.840
5232.60333.215
5332.18632.478
5431.64231.769
5531.14231.045
5630.72130.160
5730.18829.634
5829.79429.100
5929.34828.510
6028.85327.733
6128.44926.952
6228.04626.380
6327.62425.843
6427.29125.182
6526.78324.665
6626.38724.136
6725.87923.640
6825.29922.991
6924.73522.323
7024.27221.841
7123.86321.181
7223.41920.652
7322.94720.030
7422.49019.474
7522.02018.858
7621.54318.307
7721.13317.708
7820.55717.155
7920.01616.626
8019.44715.936
8118.99815.289
8218.42114.676
8317.87213.985
8417.39213.409
8516.94212.913
8616.22612.250
8715.68011.573
8815.10911.034
8914.49510.394
9013.8659.693
9113.0979.048
9212.4458.302
9311.6907.525
9411.0436.607
9510.1615.969
969.3775.257
978.3084.265
987.1403.457
995.4402.577


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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