Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Product list for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Probability distribution for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile14.45016.256
Median22.07128.367
Mean25.10831.374
75% Quartile32.82343.324
Interquartile Range18.37327.067

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
173.03885.620
263.89276.776
358.71373.304
454.57570.446
552.36968.326
650.30365.370
748.46463.284
847.20061.326
945.88259.362
1044.50057.878
1143.53356.639
1242.49755.265
1341.56254.215
1440.62953.157
1539.64451.986
1638.78851.050
1737.97849.950
1837.34148.821
1936.66447.819
2035.95047.024
2135.17146.252
2234.52645.387
2333.81344.779
2433.30843.887
2532.83343.324
2632.30342.838
2731.85842.093
2831.32541.499
2930.82240.804
3030.31140.035
3129.91039.326
3229.48738.603
3329.08038.028
3428.65637.459
3528.12036.673
3627.50536.041
3727.06435.407
3826.65934.813
3926.30434.323
4025.83133.675
4125.43933.045
4225.11032.576
4324.60732.180
4424.27631.634
4523.93831.140
4623.53130.586
4723.07930.080
4822.74429.418
4922.36928.914
5022.07128.367
5121.75527.869
5221.43827.369
5321.14326.782
5420.75226.218
5520.49425.644
5620.17924.946
5719.91424.532
5819.56624.113
5919.25723.652
6018.94823.045
6118.64722.438
6218.36321.995
6318.06121.580
6417.77221.070
6517.52020.673
6617.21020.266
6716.91319.887
6816.57519.391
6916.33818.882
7016.03418.515
7115.70818.014
7215.37817.613
7315.07617.142
7414.75216.721
7514.43716.256
7614.10215.840
7713.76715.388
7813.47614.970
7913.18714.572
8012.92214.050
8112.55113.561
8212.20713.097
8311.83812.572
8411.49412.134
8511.17611.756
8610.79511.248
8710.39010.727
8810.06410.310
899.6309.812
909.1409.262
918.8138.752
928.3078.154
937.7857.524
947.2356.765
956.7366.228
966.2005.617
975.4494.738
984.6153.996
993.2913.148


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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