Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Product list for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara



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Probability distribution for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara ( Feb 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.3732.465
Median2.1734.319
Mean2.5585.830
75% Quartile3.3417.503
Interquartile Range1.9685.038

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18.88525.389
27.59720.588
36.61918.827
46.10417.438
55.76116.447
65.54815.123
75.35014.230
85.07913.425
94.86212.649
104.70112.085
114.54311.628
124.38011.136
134.26010.771
144.16610.412
154.07310.026
163.9619.725
173.8709.380
183.7969.037
193.7298.740
203.6468.510
213.5868.292
223.5118.052
233.4497.887
243.3927.650
253.3417.503
263.2877.378
273.2247.189
283.1597.042
293.0866.872
303.0276.688
312.9756.522
322.9276.356
332.8726.226
342.8166.099
352.7765.928
362.7285.793
372.6705.659
382.6295.536
392.5915.436
402.5515.306
412.5115.182
422.4705.091
432.4275.014
442.3934.911
452.3604.818
462.3154.716
472.2744.623
482.2404.504
492.2104.415
502.1734.319
512.1324.233
522.0934.148
532.0644.049
542.0313.955
552.0023.861
561.9643.748
571.9353.682
581.9043.616
591.8793.544
601.8483.450
611.8183.357
621.7843.290
631.7583.227
641.7293.152
651.7083.093
661.6793.033
671.6482.978
681.6202.906
691.5792.833
701.5422.781
711.5082.710
721.4762.654
731.4382.588
741.4022.529
751.3722.465
761.3462.408
771.3072.346
781.2762.289
791.2412.234
801.2062.164
811.1812.098
821.1462.035
831.1041.965
841.0741.906
851.0381.855
860.9961.787
870.9621.717
880.9201.661
890.8781.594
900.8271.520
910.7741.450
920.7191.369
930.6651.282
940.6141.177
950.5411.101
960.4611.014
970.3740.886
980.2500.774
990.0640.641


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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