Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Product list for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara



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Probability distribution for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara ( Jan  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.4582.529
Median2.1274.570
Mean2.4226.313
75% Quartile3.0797.987
Interquartile Range1.6215.458

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
17.47431.777
26.20024.031
35.74121.497
45.32219.626
55.01818.294
64.84616.653
74.65915.569
84.50114.601
94.34513.693
104.19713.043
114.08812.523
123.99411.971
133.90111.562
143.79911.157
153.70510.729
163.62010.401
173.54510.019
183.4859.642
193.4259.321
203.3729.074
213.3038.839
223.2488.571
233.1758.402
243.1258.144
253.0797.989
263.0267.855
272.9707.648
282.9277.487
292.8807.311
302.8297.112
312.7946.936
322.7576.753
332.7086.615
342.6576.485
352.6296.298
362.5966.156
372.5616.012
382.5285.882
392.4895.773
402.4535.634
412.4175.500
422.3755.403
432.3405.319
442.3105.209
452.2805.110
462.2414.997
472.2114.901
482.1794.772
492.1544.673
502.1274.570
512.0924.478
522.0684.387
532.0394.276
542.0114.178
551.9894.069
561.9593.951
571.9313.879
581.8983.805
591.8713.727
601.8403.621
611.8143.521
621.7883.448
631.7643.378
641.7353.296
651.7113.231
661.6833.165
671.6593.104
681.6353.024
691.6132.943
701.5882.884
711.5652.805
721.5362.742
731.5052.668
741.4822.602
751.4572.529
761.4272.464
771.3992.394
781.3692.330
791.3362.268
801.3072.187
811.2802.111
821.2472.040
831.2161.958
841.1801.890
851.1431.831
861.1071.752
871.0781.671
881.0421.605
891.0061.526
900.9701.438
910.9271.356
920.8831.259
930.8331.155
940.7891.028
950.7190.935
960.6540.828
970.5840.669
980.4760.528
990.3120.357


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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